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We constuct a sequential adaptive procedure for estimating the autoregressive function at a given point in nonparametric autoregression models with Gaussian noise. We make use of the sequential kernel estimators. The optimal adaptive…

We study general nonlinear models for time series networks of integer and continuous valued data. The vector of high dimensional responses, measured on the nodes of a known network, is regressed non-linearly on its lagged value and on…

We propose a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood of Gaussian process regression models that can be computed without matrix factorisation of the full kernel matrix. We show that approximate maximum likelihood learning of model…

We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a "space switching" in the situation, when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly non Gaussian, probability density.…

We are interested in the implications of a linearly autocorrelated driven noise on the asymptotic behavior of the usual least squares estimator in a stable autoregressive process. We show that the least squares estimator is not consistent…

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

We propose a class of estimators for the parameters of a GARCH(p,q) sequence. We show that our estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild conditions. The quasi-maximum likelihood and the likelihood estimators are…

In this paper we study the asymptotics of linear regression in settings with non-Gaussian covariates where the covariates exhibit a linear dependency structure, departing from the standard assumption of independence. We model the covariates…

This article provides an introduction to the asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered. The aim of this introduction is to be accessible to a wide audience and…

Maximum likelihood estimators for time-dependent mean functions within Gaussian processes are provided in the context of continuous observations. We find the widest possible class of mean functions for which the likelihood function can be…

Non linear regression models are a standard tool for modeling real phenomena, with several applications in machine learning, ecology, econometry... Estimating the parameters of the model has garnered a lot of attention during many years. We…

We investigate a semiparametric regression model where one gets noisy non linear non invertible functions of the observations. We focus on the application to bearings-only tracking. We first investigate the least squares estimator and prove…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

We propose an optimal-transport-based matching method to nonparametrically estimate linear models with independent latent variables. The method consists in generating pseudo-observations from the latent variables, so that the Euclidean…

This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…

The optimal predictor for a linear dynamical system (with hidden state and Gaussian noise) takes the form of an autoregressive linear filter, namely the Kalman filter. However, a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning and control…

In this note a new high performance least squares parameter estimator is proposed. The main features of the estimator are: (i) global exponential convergence is guaranteed for all identifiable linear regression equations; (ii) it…

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

We consider the estimation of parametric fractional time series models in which not only is the memory parameter unknown, but one may not know whether it lies in the stationary/invertible region or the nonstationary or noninvertible…

We establish the consistency of a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for a class of stochastic inverse problems. We proceed by embedding the framework into the general settings of early results of Pfanzagl related to mixtures.