Related papers: Mechanistic-statistical model for the expansion of…
Ash dieback (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus) is an introduced fungal disease that is causing the widespread death of ash trees across Europe. Remote sensing hyperspectral images encode rich structure that has been exploited for the detection of…
Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for ecologists to understand and predict species range. However, standard SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dynamic processes like dispersal. This limitation may lead to…
Ash dieback (ADB) is threatening populations of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior & F. angustifolia) for more than three decades. Although much knowledge has been gathered in the recent past, practical conservation measures have been mostly…
Infectious diseases on farms pose both public and animal health risks, so understanding how they spread between farms is crucial for developing disease control strategies to prevent future outbreaks. We develop novel Bayesian nonparametric…
Flavescence dor\'ee (FD) is a disease of grapevine transmitted by an insect vector, $Scaphoideus$ $titanus$ Ball. At present, no prophylaxis exists, so mandatory control procedures (e.g. removal of infected plants, and insecticidal sprays…
The steady state properties of the mean density population of infected cells in a viral spread is simulated by a general forest fire like cellular automaton model with two distinct populations of cells ( permissive and resistant ones) and…
We introduce a spatially extended mathematical model for Duchenne muscular dystrophy based on a damage-driven paradigm, in which immune recruitment is triggered by tissue injury. The model is formulated as a reaction--diffusion--chemotaxis…
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly virulent viral disease that affects both domestic pigs and wild boar. Current ASF transmission in Europe is in part driven by wild boar populations, which act as a disease reservoir. Wild boar are…
The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global swine industry. Understanding transmission dynamics, such as through mechanistic modeling, is critical for designing effective control strategies. Articles were…
A demographic Allee effect occurs when individual fitness, at low densities, increases with population density. Coupled with environmental fluctuations in demographic rates, Allee effects can have subtle effects on population persistence…
The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences…
Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
African Swine Fever (ASF) represents the main threat to swine production, with heavy economic consequences for both farmers and the food industry. The spread of the virus that causes ASF through Europe raises the issues of identifying…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge,…
In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors driving the spread of influenza, and possible policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the disease. To be precise, we first invoke discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to…
In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…