Related papers: Use Model Averaging instead of Model Selection in …

The detection of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal from the superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black holes with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) is likely to occur within the next decade. With this detection will come the…

Since the recent announcements of evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background from several pulsar timing array collaborations, much effort has been devoted to explore features beyond the fiducial Hellings-Downs background…

Sparseness of the regression coefficient vector is often a desirable property, since, among other benefits, sparseness improves interpretability. In practice, many true regression coefficients might be negligibly small, but non-zero, which…

Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been…

The characterization of nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) with pulsar-timing arrays requires a continual expansion of datasets and monitored pulsars. Whereas detection of the stochastic GW background is predicated on measuring a…

Gaussian processes (GP) are powerful tools for probabilistic modeling purposes. They can be used to define prior distributions over latent functions in hierarchical Bayesian models. The prior over functions is defined implicitly by the mean…

Pulsar timing is a technique that uses the highly stable spin periods of neutron stars to investigate a wide range of topics in physics and astrophysics. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use sets of extremely well-timed pulsars as a Galaxy-scale…

Variable selection in Gaussian processes (GPs) is typically undertaken by thresholding the inverse lengthscales of automatic relevance determination kernels, but in high-dimensional datasets this approach can be unreliable. A more…

A new approach to the problem of gravitational waves detection based on simultaneous timing of several pulsars and subsequent expansion of the post-fit timing data into components of different spectral kind (with different spectral indices)…

High-precision pulsar timing requires accurate corrections for dispersive delays of radio waves, parametrized by the dispersion measure (DM), particularly if these delays are variable in time. In a previous paper we studied the Solar-wind…

We introduce the concept of conjugate prior models for a given likelihood function in Bayesian spatial inversion. The conjugate class of prior models can be selection extended and still remain conjugate. We demonstrate the generality of…

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by…

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…

The null hypothesis in Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) analyses includes assumptions about ensemble properties of pulsar time-correlated noise. These properties are encoded in prior probabilities for the amplitude and the spectral index of the…

We perform extensive Monte Carlo simulations to systematically compare the frequentist and Bayesian treatments of the Lomb--Scargle periodogram. The goal is to investigate whether the Bayesian period search is advantageous over the…

An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density \gamma,…

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major…