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Contagion arising from clustering of multiple time series like those in the stock market indicators can further complicate the nature of volatility, rendering a parametric test (relying on asymptotic distribution) to suffer from issues on…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-05 Erniel B. Barrios , Paolo Victor T. Redondo

The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Marco Marani , Enrico Zorzetto

The inference procedure for the mean of a stationary time series is usually quite different under various model assumptions because the partial sum process behaves differently depending on whether the time series is short or long-range…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-22 Shuyang Bai , Murad S. Taqqu , Ting Zhang

The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Ariel Kleiner , Ameet Talwalkar , Purnamrita Sarkar , Michael Jordan

Standard gradient descent methods yield point estimates with no measure of confidence. This limitation is acute in overparameterized and low-data regimes, where models have many parameters relative to available data and can easily overfit.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Carlos Stein Brito

We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Laura Dumitrescu , Ioana Schiopu-Kratina

A method is developed for calculating effective sums of divergent series. This approach is a variant of the self-similar approximation theory. The novelty here is in using an algebraic transformation with a power providing the maximal…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 V. I. Yukalov , S. Gluzman

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Evandro Konzen , Claudia Neves , Philip Jonathan

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

In the present paper we consider the varying coefficient model which represents a useful tool for exploring dynamic patterns in many applications. Existing methods typically provide asymptotic evaluation of precision of estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-07 Olga Klopp , Marianna Pensky

The ISO 5725 series frames interlaboratory precision through repeatability, between-laboratory, and reproducibility variances, yet practical guidance on deploying bootstrap methods within this one-way random-effects setting remains limited.…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-10 Jun-ichi Takeshita , Kazuhiro Morita , Tomomichi Suzuki

While widely used as a general method for uncertainty quantification, the bootstrap method encounters difficulties that raise concerns about its validity in practical applications. This paper introduces a new resampling-based method, termed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-30 Yiran Jiang , Chuanhai Liu , Heping Zhang

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods represent a classical set of techniques to simulate a sequence of probability measures through a simple selection/mutation mechanism. However, the associated selection functions and mutation kernels…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Qiming Du , Arnaud Guyader

We study asymptotic behavior of one-step weighted $M$-estimators based on samples from arrays of not necessarily identically distributed random variables and representing explicit approximations to the corresponding consistent weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Yu. Yu. Linke

In distributed, or privacy-preserving learning, we are often given a set of probabilistic models estimated from different local repositories, and asked to combine them into a single model that gives efficient statistical estimation. A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-01 Jun Han , Qiang Liu

Bootstrap methods, initially developed for solving statistical and quantum field theories, have recently been shown to capture the discrete spectrum of quantum mechanical problems, such as the single particle Schr\"odinger equation with an…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2021-12-15 Serguei Tchoumakov , Serge Florens

Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Pierre Barbillon , Célia Barthélémy , Adeline Samson