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Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-19 Aaron J. Hill , Russ S. Schumacher , Israel Jirak

Based on several magnetic nonpotentiality parameters obtained from the vector photospheric active region magnetograms obtained with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at the Huairou Solar Observing Station over two solar cycles, a machine…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-08-29 Xiao Yang , GangHua Lin , HongQi Zhang , XinJie Mao

Multivariate time series (MTS) data, when sampled irregularly and asynchronously, often present extensive missing values. Conventional methodologies for MTS analysis tend to rely on temporal embeddings based on timestamps that necessitate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Chun-Kai Huang , Yi-Hsien Hsieh , Ta-Jung Chien , Li-Cheng Chien , Shao-Hua Sun , Tung-Hung Su , Jia-Horng Kao , Che Lin

We consider nonnegative time series forecasting framework. Based on recent advances in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and Archetypal Analysis, we introduce two procedures referred to as Sliding Mask Method (SMM) and Latent Clustered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yohann de Castro , Luca Mencarelli

Decades of in-situ solar wind measurements have clearly established the variation of solar wind physical parameters. These variable parameters have been used to classify the solar wind magnetized plasma into different types leading to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-17 Tom Narock , Sanchita Pal , Aryana Arsham , Ayris Narock , Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla

Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-03 Aoife E. McCloskey , Peter T. Gallagher , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Minbo Ma , Kai Tang , Huan Li , Fei Teng , Dalin Zhang , Tianrui Li

Stochastic state estimation methods for continuum robots (CRs) often struggle to balance accuracy and computational efficiency. While several recent works have explored sliding-window formulations for CRs, these methods are limited to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Spencer Teetaert , Sven Lilge , Jessica Burgner-Kahrs , Timothy D. Barfoot

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-02-08 Jie Jiang , Zebin Zhang , Kristóf Petrovay

The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-10-21 Marianna Korsos , Andras Ludmany , Robert Erdelyi , Tunde Baranyi

Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare…

Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-07 T. Cinto , A. L. S. Gradvohl , G. P. Coelho , A. E. A. da Silva

AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Kausik Lakkaraju , Rachneet Kaur , Zhen Zeng , Parisa Zehtabi , Sunandita Patra , Biplav Srivastava , Marco Valtorta

Owing to its minimal pollution and efficient energy use, wind energy has become one of the most widely exploited renewable energy resources. The successful integration of wind power into the grid system is contingent upon accurate wind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Ephrem Admasu Yekun , Alem H. Fitwib , Selvi Karpaga Subramaniand , Anubhav Kumard , Teshome Goa Tella

Solar shading design should be done for the desired Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) in the early design stages. This field can be very challenging and time-consuming also requires experts, sophisticated software, and a large amount of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Maryam Daneshi , Reza Taghavi Fard , Zahra Sadat Zomorodian , Mohammad Tahsildoost

Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARP) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and…

Self-supervised representation learning, particularly through contrastive methods like TS2Vec, has advanced the analysis of time series data. However, these models often falter in forecasting tasks because their objective functions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Ganeshan Niroshan , Uthayasanker Thayasivam

We study the problem of feature selection in general machine learning (ML) context, which is one of the most critical subjects in the field. Although, there exist many feature selection methods, however, these methods face challenges such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Mehmet Y. Turali , Mehmet E. Lorasdagi , Ali T. Koc , Suleyman S. Kozat

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Nikolaus Umlauf , Nadja Klein

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development…

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