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The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-02-11 Arthur Guez , David Silver , Peter Dayan

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-27 Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nicolas Chopin , Nick Whiteley

This article presents new methodology for sample-based Bayesian inference when data are partitioned and communication between the parts is expensive, as arises by necessity in the context of "big data" or by choice in order to take…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-01 Marc Box

Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-18 David N. John , Livia Stohrer , Claudia Schillings , Michael Schick , Vincent Heuveline

Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-23 Jan Povala , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Eky Febrianto , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) enables efficient posterior estimation using generative neural networks trained on simulated data, but often suffers from performance degradation under model misspecification. While self-consistency (SC)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Aayush Mishra , Šimon Kucharský , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-22 Daolang Huang , Xinyi Wen , Ayush Bharti , Samuel Kaski , Luigi Acerbi

Inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks such as parameter estimation are computationally demanding whenever dealing with physics-based models, and typically require repeated evaluations of complex numerical solvers. When partial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Filippo Zacchei , Paolo Conti , Attilio Alberto Frangi , Andrea Manzoni

We introduce a flexible, scalable Bayesian inference framework for nonlinear dynamical systems characterised by distinct and hierarchical variability at the individual, group, and population levels. Our model class is a generalisation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-03 Geoffrey Roeder , Paul K. Grant , Andrew Phillips , Neil Dalchau , Edward Meeds

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-05 Dennis Prangle

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-29 Guanyang Wang

Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-15 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-09 M. T. Pratola

We present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map model input points to low dimensional latent variables. The "projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-22 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Piyush Pandita , Sayan Ghosh , Valeria Andreoli , Thomas Vandeputte , Liping Wang

In Bayesian statistics, many problems can be expressed as the evaluation of the expectation of a quantity of interest with respect to the posterior distribution. Standard Monte Carlo method is often not applicable because the encountered…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-11 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-19 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Many real-world applications require solving families of expensive multi-objective optimization problems~(EMOPs) under varying operational conditions. This can be formulated as parametric expensive multi-objective optimization problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Tingyang Wei , Jiao Liu , Abhishek Gupta , Chin Chun Ooi , Puay Siew Tan , Yew-Soon Ong

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-09 Allan De Freitas , François Septier , Lyudmila Mihaylova