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Bitcoin is the first digital decentralized cryptocurrency that has shown a significant increase in market capitalization in recent years. The objective of this paper is to determine the predictable price direction of Bitcoin in USD by…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-26 S M Raju , Ali Mohammad Tarif

Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-22 Stanisław Drożdż , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marek Stanuszek , Marcin Wątorek

Following the birth of Bitcoin and the introduction of the Ethereum ERC20 protocol a decade ago, recent years have witnessed a growing number of cryptographic tokens that are being introduced by researchers, private sector companies and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-20 Shahar Somin , Goren Gordon , Alex Pentland , Erez Shmueli , Yaniv Altshuler

With the proliferation of new blockchain-based cryptocurrencies/assets and platforms that make it possible to transact across them, it becomes important to consider not just whether the transfer of coins/assets can be tracked within their…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Ayush Kumar , Vrizlynn L. L. Thing

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Chongyang Bai , Tommy White , Linda Xiao , V. S. Subrahmanian , Ziheng Zhou

The wide success of Bitcoin has led to a huge surge of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). Most altcoins essentially fork Bitcoin's code with minor modifications, such as the number of coins to be minted, the block size, and the block…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Sebastien Andreina , Lorenzo Alluminio , Giorgia Azzurra Marson , Ghassan Karame

Cryptocurrencies are gaining more popularity due to their security, making counterfeits impossible. However, these digital currencies have been criticized for creating a large carbon footprint due to their algorithmic complexity and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Altanai Bisht , Arielle Wilson , Zachary Jeffreys , Shadrokh Samavi

Cryptocurrencies, as decentralized digital assets, have experienced rapid growth and adoption, with over 23,000 cryptocurrencies and a market capitalization nearing \$1.1 trillion (about \$3,400 per person in the US) as of 2023. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Jannatun Nayeem Pinky , Ramya Akula

This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Zijiang Yang

This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-12 Lubdhak Mondal , Udeshya Raj , Abinandhan S , Began Gowsik S , Sarwesh P , Abhijeet Chandra

This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Anmar Kareem , Alexander Aue

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC), which comprise a new digital asset class, have drawn extraordinary worldwide attention. The characteristics of the cryptocurrency/BTC include a high level of speculation, extreme volatility and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-24 Ai Jun Hou , Weining Wang , Cathy Y. H. Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Conventional financial models fail to explain the economic and monetary properties of cryptocurrencies due to the latter's dual nature: their usage as financial assets on the one side and their tight connection to the underlying blockchain…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-20 Constandina Koki , Stefanos Leonardos , Georgios Piliouras

A main focus in economics research is understanding the time series of prices of goods and assets. While statistical models using only the properties of the time series itself have been successful in many aspects, we expect to gain a better…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-12-15 Dániel Kondor , István Csabai , János Szüle , Márton Pósfai , Gábor Vattay

The cryptocurrency ecosystem has been the centre of discussion on many social media platforms, following its noted volatility and varied opinions. Twitter is rapidly being utilised as a news source and a medium for bitcoin discussion. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-17 Haritha GB , Sahana N. B

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-15 Ali Mohammadjafari

Despite being described as a medium of exchange, cryptocurrencies do not have the typical attributes of a medium of exchange. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are more appropriately described as crypto assets. A common investment attribute…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-15 Yuan Hu , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

With emergence of blockchain technologies and the associated cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, understanding network dynamics behind Blockchain graphs has become a rapidly evolving research direction. Unlike other financial networks, such…

This paper is the first of a series of short articles that explore the efficiency of major cryptocurrency markets. A number of statistical tests and properties of statistical distributions will be used to assess if cryptocurrency markets…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-01 Eugene Tartakovsky , Ksenia Plesovskikh , Anastasiia Sarmakeeva , Alexander Bibik

In modern times, the cryptocurrency market is one of the world's most rapidly rising financial markets. The cryptocurrency market is regarded to be more volatile and illiquid than traditional markets such as equities, foreign exchange, and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-03 Anika Tahsin Meem