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This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Lars van der Laan

A dynamical model consists of a continuous self-map $T: \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{X}$ of a compact state space $\mathcal{X}$ and a continuous observation function $f: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}$. This paper considers the fitting of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

Selecting the best regularization parameter in inverse problems is a classical and yet challenging problem. Recently, data-driven approaches have become popular to tackle this challenge. These approaches are appealing since they do require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Jonathan Chirinos Rodriguez , Ernesto De Vito , Cesare Molinari , Lorenzo Rosasco , Silvia Villa

We give a general result concerning the rates of convergence of penalized empirical risk minimizers (PERM) in the regression model. Then, we consider the problem of agnostic learning of the regression, and give in this context an oracle…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-30 S. Gaïffas , G. Lecué

It is well known that Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) may attain minimax suboptimal rates in terms of the mean squared error (Birg\'e and Massart, 1993). In this paper, we prove that, under relatively mild assumptions, the suboptimality…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Gil Kur , Eli Putterman , Alexander Rakhlin

Single-index models or time-to-event models are frequently applied in empirical research. These models are non-identifiable in presence of unknown (dependent) censoring or competing risks and do not give informative results in empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Jia-Han Shih , Simon M. S. Lo , Ralf A. Wilke

This article establishes a new and comprehensive estimation and inference theory for principal component analysis (PCA) under the weak factor model that allow for cross-sectional dependent idiosyncratic components under the nearly minimal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-02 Jianqing Fan , Yuling Yan , Yuheng Zheng

In this paper, we establish minimax optimal rates of convergence for prediction in a semi-functional linear model that consists of a functional component and a less smooth nonparametric component. Our results reveal that the smoother…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-01 Keli Guo , Jun Fan , Lixing Zhu

We propose a supervised principal component regression method for relating functional responses with high dimensional predictors. Unlike the conventional principal component analysis, the proposed method builds on a newly defined expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-17 Xinyi Zhang , Qiang Sun , Dehan Kong

We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Alexander Zimin , Christoph H. Lampert

We consider the problem of estimating the structural function in nonparametric instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W a response Y is modeled in dependence of an endogenous explanatory variable Z. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jan Johannes , Maik Schwarz

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithms are widely used in a variety of estimation and prediction tasks in signal-processing and machine learning applications. Despite their popularity, a theory that explains their statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Hossein Taheri , Ramtin Pedarsani , Christos Thrampoulidis

Predictive performance of machine learning models trained with empirical risk minimization (ERM) can degrade considerably under distribution shifts. The presence of spurious correlations in training datasets leads ERM-trained models to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Simon Roburin , Charles Corbière , Gilles Puy , Nicolas Thome , Matthieu Aubry , Renaud Marlet , Patrick Pérez

The extremal dependence structure of a regularly varying $d$-dimensional random vector can be described by its angular measure. The standard nonparametric estimator of this measure is the empirical measure of the observed angles of the $k$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Holger Drees

In this paper, we derive minimax rates for estimating both parametric and nonparametric components in partially linear additive models with high dimensional sparse vectors and smooth functional components. The minimax lower bound for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-16 Zhuqing Yu , Michael Levine , Guang Cheng

Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-04 Aurélien Bibaut , Antoine Chambaz , Maria Dimakopoulou , Nathan Kallus , Mark van der Laan

Principal component analysis is an important pattern recognition and dimensionality reduction tool in many applications. Principal components are computed as eigenvectors of a maximum likelihood covariance $\widehat{\Sigma}$ that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-30 Raphael Hauser , Raul Kangro , Jüri Lember , Heinrich Matzinger

This article develops a general theory for minimum norm interpolating estimators and regularized empirical risk minimizers (RERM) in linear models in the presence of additive, potentially adversarial, errors. In particular, no conditions on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-08 Geoffrey Chinot , Matthias Löffler , Sara van de Geer

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kılınç-Karzan