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Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing rapid growth, but this expansion comes with significant challenges, particularly in predicting cryptocurrency prices for traders in the U.S. In this study, we explore how deep learning and machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Md Zahidul Islam , Md Shafiqur Rahman , Md Sumsuzoha , Babul Sarker , Md Rafiqul Islam , Mahfuz Alam , Sanjib Kumar Shil

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

The fusion of public sentiment data in the form of text with stock price prediction is a topic of increasing interest within the financial community. However, the research literature seldom explores the application of investor sentiment in…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-14 Mufhumudzi Muthivhi , Terence L. van Zyl

This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-17 Rick Bohte , Luca Rossini

We introduce a new language representation model in finance called Financial Embedding Analysis of Sentiment (FinEAS). In financial markets, news and investor sentiment are significant drivers of security prices. Thus, leveraging the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-11-22 Asier Gutiérrez-Fandiño , Miquel Noguer i Alonso , Petter Kolm , Jordi Armengol-Estapé

This paper offers a thorough examination of the univariate predictability in cryptocurrency time-series. By exploiting a combination of complexity measure and model predictions we explore the cryptocurrencies time-series forecasting task…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-14 Francesco Puoti , Fabrizio Pittorino , Manuel Roveri

One fundamental question for the social sciences today is: how much can we trust highly complex predictive models like ChatGPT? This study tests the hypothesis that subtle changes in the structure of prompts do not produce significant…

Predicting human decision-making under risk and uncertainty is a long-standing challenge in cognitive science, economics, and AI. While prior research has focused on numerically described lotteries, real-world decisions often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Eyal Marantz , Ori Plonsky

Non-Fungible Token (NFT) is evolving with the rise of the cryptocurrency market and the development of blockchain techniques, which leads to an emerging NFT market that has become prosperous rapidly then followed by a cooldown.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-09-21 Junliang Luo , Yongzheng Jia , Xue Liu

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Fan Fang , Waichung Chung , Carmine Ventre , Michail Basios , Leslie Kanthan , Lingbo Li , Fan Wu

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-04-25 Peter M Krafft , Nicolás Della Penna , Alex Pentland

This study aimed to investigate the influence of the presence of informal language, such as emoticons and slang, on the performance of sentiment analysis models applied to social media text. A convolutional neural network (CNN) model was…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Aadil Gani Ganie

Sentiment Analysis (SA) or opinion mining is analysis of emotions and opinions from any kind of text. SA helps in tracking peoples viewpoints and it is an important factor when it comes to social media monitoring product and brand…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Gibson Nkhata , Usman Anjum , Justin Zhan

Sentiment analysis can provide a suitable lead for the tools used in software engineering along with the API recommendation systems and relevant libraries to be used. In this context, the existing tools like SentiCR, SentiStrength-SE, etc.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Himanshu Batra , Narinder Singh Punn , Sanjay Kumar Sonbhadra , Sonali Agarwal

Opinion formation has been gaining increasing research interests recently, and various models have been proposed. These models, however, have their limitations, among which noticeably include (i) it is generally assumed that adjacent nodes…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-03-08 Yi Yu , Gaoxi Xiao

In August 2025, a major AI company's immediate, mandatory transition from its previous to its next-generation model triggered widespread public reactions. I collected 150 posts in Japanese and English from multiple social media platforms…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Hiroki Naito

Policy design in non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is inherently challenging due to the complexities introduced by time-varying system transition and reward, which make it difficult for learners to determine the optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Ziyi Zhang , Yorie Nakahira , Guannan Qu

This research explores a relatively unexplored area of predicting cryptocurrency staking rewards, offering potential insights to researchers and investors. We investigate two predictive methodologies: a) a straightforward sliding-window…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-23 Sauren Gupta , Apoorva Hathi Katharaki , Yifan Xu , Bhaskar Krishnamachari , Rajarshi Gupta

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2018-04-05 Navid Rekabsaz , Mihai Lupu , Artem Baklanov , Allan Hanbury , Alexander Duer , Linda Anderson

There is growing interest in the role of sentiment in economic decision-making. However, most research on the subject has focused on positive and negative valence. Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) places Approach and Avoidance sentiment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Jacob Turton , Ali Kabiri , David Tuckett , Robert Elliott Smith , David P. Vinson