Related papers: Bayesian Dynamic Generalized Additive Model for Mo…
We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for jointly modeling longitudinal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor trajectories, medication use, and time-to-events. Our methodology incorporates longitudinal risk factor trajectories into the…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
COVID-19 had a strong and disruptive impact on our society, and yet further analyses on most relevant factors explaining the spread of the pandemic are needed. Interdisciplinary studies linking epidemiological, mobility, environmental, and…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future. These "severity rates" can change over the course of an epidemic in response to shifting conditions…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…
The global spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has cast a significant threat to mankind. As the COVID-19 situation continues to evolve, predicting localized disease severity is crucial for advanced…
We propose a methodology to quantify the impact on breast cancer mortality of diagnostic delays caused by public health measures introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures affected cancer pathways by halting cancer…
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a rapid response from governments and researchers worldwide. As of late 2023, over millions have died as a result of COVID-19, with many COVID-19 survivors going on to experience long-term effects…
To investigate intervention effects on rare events, meta-analysis techniques are commonly applied in order to assess the accumulated evidence. When it comes to adverse effects in clinical trials, these are often most adequately handled…
We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
Pandemic outbreak creates a life threatening situation around the world and for a while it feels as if it slows down the world. A lot of effort is being taken to mitigate the spread of the pandemics. The main objective of this paper is to…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…