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Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We extend Fisher's randomization test (FRT) to test conditional independence between observed outcomes and treatments given covariates in both randomized experiments and observational studies, with no restriction on the variable type of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Zhen Zhong

Heterogeneous effect estimation plays a crucial role in causal inference, with applications across medicine and social science. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Edward H. Kennedy

Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models are widely used in political science to establish causality, but recent methodological discussions highlight their limitations under heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and violations of the parallel…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Albert Chiu , Xingchen Lan , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Federated learning of causal estimands may greatly improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites, but robustness to heterogeneity and model misspecifications is vital for ensuring validity. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Larry Han , Jue Hou , Kelly Cho , Rui Duan , Tianxi Cai

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie

Complex dynamical systems are prevalent in many scientific disciplines. In the analysis of such systems two aspects are of particular interest: 1) the temporal patterns along which they evolve and 2) the underlying causal mechanisms.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Transfer learning seeks to accelerate sequential decision-making by leveraging offline data from related agents. However, data from heterogeneous sources that differ in observed features, distributions, or unobserved confounders often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Xueping Gong , Wei You , Jiheng Zhang

Cannabis consumption impairs key driving skills and increases crash risk, yet few objective, validated tools exists to identify acute cannabis use or impairment in traffic safety settings. Pupil response to light has emerged as a promising…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Weijia Qian , Erjia Cui , Ashley Brooks-Russell , Julia Wrobel

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

Time-to-event analysis, also known as survival analysis, aims to predict the time of occurrence of an event, given a set of features. One of the major challenges in this area is dealing with censored data, which can make learning algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Hyunjun Lee , Junhyun Lee , Taehwa Choi , Jaewoo Kang , Sangbum Choi

The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is a sequential randomized experimental design to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) intervention components that may be delivered at hundreds or thousands of decision points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

We provide precise conditions for nonparametric identification of causal effects by high-frequency event study regressions, which have been used widely in the recent macroeconomics, financial economics and political economy literatures. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-24 Alessandro Casini , Adam McCloskey

Recent advances in natural language processing have enabled the increasing use of text data in causal inference, particularly for adjusting confounding factors in treatment effect estimation. Although high-dimensional text can encode rich…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Lijinghua Zhang , Hengrui Cai

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference, especially in…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-30 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Haruo Kakehi , Shota Yasui