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Many clinical studies require the follow-up of patients over time. This is challenging: apart from frequently observed drop-out, there are often also organizational and financial challenges, which can lead to reduced data collection and, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Fateme Nateghi Haredasht , Celine Vens

This paper studies optimal insurance design under asymmetric information in a Stackelberg framework, where a monopolistic insurer faces uncertainty about both the insured's risk attitude, captured by a risk-aversion parameter, and the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-20 Xia Han , Bin Li

The increasing impact of algorithmic decisions on people's lives compels us to scrutinize their fairness and, in particular, the disparate impacts that ostensibly-color-blind algorithms can have on different groups. Examples include credit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly consulted for high-stakes life advice, yet they lack standard safeguards against providing confident but misguided responses. This creates risks of sycophancy and over-confidence. This paper…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Joshua Adrian Cahyono , Saran Subramanian

Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-30 Cheng Lee , Hsi Lee

This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-20 Weihong Ni , Corina Constantinescu , Alfredo Egídio dos Reis , Véronique Maume-Deschamps

We study the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance problem when both the intensity of the claims arrival process and the claim size distribution are influenced by an exogenous stochastic factor. We assume that the insurer's surplus is governed…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-12 Matteo Brachetta , Claudia Ceci

The cost of error in many high-stakes settings is asymmetric: misdiagnosing pneumonia when absent is an inconvenience, but failing to detect it when present can be life-threatening. Because of this, artificial intelligence (AI) models used…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-12 David Autor , Andrew Caplin , Daniel Martin , Philip Marx

In optimization problems, the quality of a candidate solution can be characterized by the optimality gap. For most stochastic optimization problems, this gap must be statistically estimated. We show that for risk-averse problems, standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-05 E. Ruben van Beesten , Nick W. Koning , David P. Morton

Return-risk models are the two pillars of modern portfolio theory, which are widely used to make decisions in choosing the loan portfolio of a bank. Banks and other financial institutions are subjected to limited liability protection.…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-27 Deb Narayan Barik , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

In supervised learning, we often face with ambiguous (A) samples that are difficult to label even by domain experts. In this paper, we consider a binary classification problem in the presence of such A samples. This problem is substantially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Naoya Otani , Yosuke Otsubo , Tetsuya Koike , Masashi Sugiyama

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis represents the most objective measure of treatment efficacy in oncology, though subjected to potential bias, which is worrisome in an era of precision medicine. Independent of the bias inherent to the design…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-17 Enrique Barrajón , Laura Barrajón

Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Mert Ketenci , Shreyas Bhave , Noémie Elhadad , Adler Perotte

Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Sebastian Calcetero Vanegas , Andrei L. Badescu , X. Sheldon Lin

In life insurance, life tables are used to estimate the survival distribution of individuals from a given population. However, these tables only provide survival probabilities at integer ages but no information about the distribution of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-19 Jean-Loup Dupret , Edouard Motte

We investigate insurance purchases when bequest motives are age-varying and life insurance and life annuities both carry loads. The existing life cycle literature assumes bequests are normal goods without being either necessities or…

General Economics · Economics 2023-10-11 Aleksandar Arandjelović , Geoffrey Kingston , Pavel V. Shevchenko

We propose a model in which, in exchange to the payment of a fixed transaction cost, an insurance company can choose the retention level as well as the time at which subscribing a perpetual reinsurance contract. The surplus process of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Maria-Laura Torrente

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

Machine Learning permeates many industries, which brings new source of benefits for companies. However within the life insurance industry, Machine Learning is not widely used in practice as over the past years statistical models have shown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-29 Antoine Chancel , Laura Bradier , Antoine Ly , Razvan Ionescu , Laurene Martin , Marguerite Sauce

Most statistical tests for treatment effects used in randomized clinical trials with survival outcomes are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which often fails in practice. Data from early exploratory studies may provide evidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-28 Andrea Arfé , Brian Alexander , Lorenzo Trippa