Related papers: Modelling Volatility of Spatio-temporal Integer-va…

We consider goodness-of-fit methods for multivariate symmetric and asymmetric stable Paretian random vectors in arbitrary dimension. The methods are based on the empirical characteristic function and are implemented both in the i.i.d.…

Graph Neural Networks have achieved impressive results across diverse network modeling tasks, but accurately estimating uncertainty on graphs remains difficult, especially under distributional shifts. Unlike traditional uncertainty…

This paper considers some designs for sampling and interventions in dynamic networks and spatial temporal settings. The sample spreads through the population largely by tracing network links, although random sampling or spatial designs may…

In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling sparse time-varying networks. A positive parameter is associated to each node of a network, which models the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to…

Spatiotemporal data consisting of timestamps, GPS coordinates, and IDs occurs in many settings. Modeling approaches for this type of data must address challenges in terms of sensor noise, uneven sampling rates, and non-persistent IDs. In…

The Ising model has become a popular psychometric model for analyzing item response data. The statistical inference of the Ising model is typically carried out via a pseudo-likelihood, as the standard likelihood approach suffers from a high…

A model for network panel data is discussed, based on the assumption that the observed data are discrete observations of a continuous-time Markov process on the space of all directed graphs on a given node set, in which changes in tie…

The dynamics of a passive scalar plume in a turbulent boundary layer is experimentally investigated via vertical turbulent transport time-series. Data are acquired in a rough-wall turbulent boundary layer that develops in a recirculating…

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…

HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…

This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…

In the present paper we consider a dynamic stochastic network model. The objective is estimation of the tensor of connection probabilities $\Lambda$ when it is generated by a Dynamic Stochastic Block Model (DSBM) or a dynamic graphon. In…

We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance…

Models of complex networks often incorporate node-intrinsic properties abstracted as hidden variables. The probability of connections in the network is then a function of these variables. Real-world networks evolve over time, and many…

Statistical solutions of incompressible Euler describe turbulent dynamics as time-parameterized laws on $L^2$ whose multi-point correlations satisfy an infinite hierarchy of weak identities. Modern generative samplers for PDE forecasting…

We employ single-qubit quantum circuit learning (QCL) to model the dynamics of volatility time series. To assess its effectiveness, we generate synthetic data using the Rational GARCH model, which is specifically designed to capture…

Networks observed in real world like social networks, collaboration networks etc., exhibit temporal dynamics, i.e. nodes and edges appear and/or disappear over time. In this paper, we propose a generative, latent space based, statistical…

A new dynamic latent space eigenmodel (LSM) is proposed for weighted temporal networks. The model accommodates integer-valued weights, excess of zeros, time-varying node positions (features), and time-varying network sparsity. The latent…

This work proposes an algorithmic framework to learn time-varying graphs from online data. The generality offered by the framework renders it model-independent, i.e., it can be theoretically analyzed in its abstract formulation and then…