Related papers: Conditional pathways-based climate attribution
Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes are to have been caused by human influence, is important for decision making on mitigation and adaptation…
Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
Disturbances to the climate system, both natural and anthropogenic, have far reaching impacts that are not always easy to identify or quantify using traditional climate science analyses or causal modeling techniques. In this paper, we…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing…
The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the "risk-based" approach to attribution attempt to give an…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
We present here a novel statistical learning approach for detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change. Traditional optimal D&A studies try to directly model the observations from model simulations, but practically this is challenging…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…
It is important to understand how the emissions of different regions, sectors, or climate forcers play a role on pathways toward the Paris Agreement temperature targets. There are however methodological challenges for attributing individual…
Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on…
This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…
Changes in extreme weather events are a potentially important aspect of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), yet, are difficult to attribute to ACC because the record length is often similar to, or shorter than, extreme-event return periods.…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
Widespread adoption of deep models has motivated a pressing need for approaches to interpret network outputs and to facilitate model debugging. Instance attribution methods constitute one means of accomplishing these goals by retrieving…