Related papers: Probability Flow Approach to the Onsager--Machlup …
We prove It{\^o}'s formula for the flow of measures associated with a jump process defined by a drift, an integral with respect to a Poisson random measure and with respect to the associated compensated Poisson random measure. We work in…
We construct a new random probability measure on the sphere and on the unit interval which in both cases has a Gibbs structure with the relative entropy functional as Hamiltonian. It satisfies a quasi-invariance formula with respect to the…
In this work, we propose a non-parametric probabilistic load flow (NP-PLF) technique based on the Gaussian Process (GP) learning to understand the power system behavior under uncertainty for better operational decisions. The technique can…
For one-dimensional Jump-Drift and Jump-Diffusion processes converging towards some steady state, the large deviations of a long dynamical trajectory are described from two perspectives. Firstly, the joint probability of the empirical…
Flowgraph models provide an alternative approach in modeling a multi-state stochastic process. One of the most widely used stochastic processes that have many real-world applications especially in actuarial models is the Markov jump process…
In this paper, we address a model selection problem for ergodic jump diffusion processes based on high-frequency samples. We evaluate the expected genuine log-likelihood function and derive an Akaike-type information criterion based on the…
We address the now classical problem of a diffusion process that crosses over from a ballistic behavior at short times to a fractional diffusion (sub- or super-diffusion) at longer times. Using the standard non-Markovian diffusion equation…
Transition path sampling (TPS), which involves finding probable paths connecting two points on an energy landscape, remains a challenge due to the complexity of real-world atomistic systems. Current machine learning approaches use…
In this letter, we present a novel Gaussian Process Learning-based Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow (GP-POPF) for solving POPF under renewable and load uncertainties of arbitrary distribution. The proposed method relies on a non-parametric…
We develop an Onsager-Machlup-type theory for nonequilibrium semi-Markov processes. Our main result is an exact large time asymptotics for the joint probability of the occupation times and the currents in the system, establishing some…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
Irreversible drift-diffusion processes are very common in biochemical reactions. They have a non-equilibrium stationary state (invariant measure) which does not satisfy detailed balance. For the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation on a…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
The escape probability is a deterministic concept that quantifies some aspects of stochastic dynamics. This issue has been investigated previously for dynamical systems driven by Gaussian Brownian motions. The present work considers escape…
Piecewise Diffusion Markov Processes (PDifMPs) are valuable for modelling systems where continuous dynamics are interrupted by sudden shifts and/or changes in drift and diffusion. The first-passage time (FPT) in such models plays a central…
A biochemical network can be simulated by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) under well stirred reactor conditions, for large numbers of molecules, and frequent reactions. This is no longer a robust representation when some…
A physical-mathematical approach to anomalous diffusion may be based on fractional diffusion equations and related random walk models. The fundamental solutions of these equations can be interpreted as probability densities evolving in time…
This work develops asymptotic properties of a class of switching jump diffusion processes. The processes under consideration may be viewed as a number of jump diffusion processes modulated by a random switching mechanism. The underlying…
The Langevin dynamics is a diffusion process extensively used, in particular in molecular dynamics simulations, to sample Gibbs measures. Some alternatives based on (piecewise deterministic) kinetic velocity jump processes have gained…
In this paper we consider the numerical solutions for a class of jump diffusions with Markovian switching. After briefly reviewing necessary notions, a new jump-adapted efficient algorithm based on the Euler scheme is constructed for…