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How do large deviation events in a stationary process cluster? The answer depends not only on the type of large deviations, but also on the length of memory in the process. Somewhat unexpectedly, it may also depend on the tails of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Jiaqi Wang , Gennady Samorodnitsky

The origin(s) of the ubiquity of probability distribution functions (PDF) with power law tails is still a matter of fascination and investigation in many scientific fields from linguistic, social, economic, computer sciences to essentially…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-01 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Multivariate Distributions are needed to capture the correlation structure of complex systems. In previous works, we developed a Random Matrix Model for such correlated multivariate joint probability density functions that accounts for the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Anton J. Heckens , Efstratios Manolakis , Cedric Schuhmann , Thomas Guhr

We study the critical behavior of the component sizes for the configuration model when the tail of the degree distribution of a randomly chosen vertex is a regularly-varying function with exponent $\tau-1$, where $\tau\in (3,4)$. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Souvik Dhara , Remco van der Hofstad , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Sanchayan Sen

Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-28 Valentin Courgeau , Almut E. D. Veraart

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to many real-world problems, but a complete understanding of their dynamical and computational principles is still lacking. Conventional theoretical frameworks for analysing DNNs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Cheng Kevin Qu , Asem Wardak , Pulin Gong

We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Jialin Zhang , Zhiyi Zhang

A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-20 Lorenzo Hernández , Jorge Tejero , Alberto Suárez , Santiago Carrillo-Menéndez

We consider asymptotics of the velocity derivatives probability distribution functions (PDFs) in Burgers' turbulence. We argue that in the forced case the same power laws as in the decaying case are realized for an infinite system.

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-10-10 I. V. Kolokolov , V. V. Lebedev

We investigate the use of optimization to compute bounds for extremal performance measures. This approach takes a non-parametric viewpoint that aims to alleviate the issue of model misspecification possibly encountered by conventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-03 Clementine Mottet , Henry Lam

In this work, we modify the affine wealth model of wealth distributions to examine the effects of nonconstant redistribution on the very wealthy. Previous studies of this model, restricted to flat redistribution schemes, have demonstrated…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-27 Sam L. Polk , Bruce M. Boghosian

We consider the multi-parameter random simplicial complex as a higher dimensional extension of the classical Erd\"os-R\'enyi graph. We investigate appearance of "unusual" topological structures in the complex from the point of view of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-18 Gennady Samorodnitsky , Takashi Owada

Human activities can play a crucial role in the statistical properties of observables in many complex systems such as social, technological and economic systems. We demonstrate this by looking into the heavy-tailed distributions of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-08-24 Jie-Jun Tseng , Ming-Jer Lee , Sai-Ping Li

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-19 Chih-Yuan Chiu , Kshitij Kulkarni , Shankar Sastry

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Debanjana Datta , Diganta Mukherjee

Percolation processes on random networks have been the subject of intense research activity over the last decades: the overall phenomenology of standard percolation on uncorrelated and unclustered topologies is well known. Still some…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-06 Lorenzo Cirigliano , Gábor Timár , Claudio Castellano

The task of estimation of the tails of probability distributions having small samples seems to be still opened and almost unsolvable. The paper tries to make a step in filling this gap. In 2017 Jordanova et al. introduce six new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Pavlina Jordanova , Monika Peteva

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-12 Cristian Giardina , Jorge Kurchan , Vivien Lecomte , Julien Tailleur
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