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We prove upper bounds on the transition probabilities of random walks with i.i.d. random conductances with a polynomial lower tail near $0$. We consider both constant and variable speed models. Our estimates are sharp. As a consequence, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-30 Omar Boukhadra , Takashi Kumagai , Pierre Mathieu

A difficult problem in the theory of random tensors is to calculate the expectation values of polynomials in the tensor entries, even in the large N limit and in a Gaussian distribution. Here we address this issue, focusing on a family of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2013-10-15 Valentin Bonzom , Frederic Combes

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

We study probability inequalities leading to tail estimates in a general semigroup $\mathscr{G}$ with a translation-invariant metric $d_{\mathscr{G}}$. (An important and central example of this in the functional analysis literature is that…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-27 Apoorva Khare , Bala Rajaratnam

We construct a new tail bound for the sum of independent random variables for situations in which the expected value of the sum is known and each random variable lies within a specified interval, which may be different for each variable.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

Random hypergraph is a broad concept used to describe probability distributions over hypergraphs, which are mathematical structures with applications in various fields, e.g., complex systems in physics, computer science, social sciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Shih-Yu Chang

We derive sharp probability bounds on the tails of a product of symmetric non-negative random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-19 Napat Rujeerapaiboon , Daniel Kuhn , Wolfram Wiesemann

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

This paper surveys the main results obtained during the period 1992-1999 on three aspects mentioned at the title. The first result is a new and general variational formula for the lower bound of spectral gap (i.e., the first non-trivial…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mu-Fa Chen

We consider compact Grassmann manifolds $G/K$ over the real, complex or quaternionic numbers whose spherical functions are Heckman-Opdam polynomials of type $BC$. From an explicit integral representation of these polynomials we deduce a…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2015-02-11 Margit Rösler , Michael Voit

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Axel Bücher , Yeonjoon Choi , Katharina Effertz , Stanislav Volgushev

The usual random walk on a group (homogeneous both in time and in space) is determined by a probability measure on the group. In a random walk with random transition probabilities this single measure is replaced with a stationary sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Vadim A. Kaimanovich , Yuri Kifer , Ben-Zion Rubshtein

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-08 Henrik Hult , Sandeep Juneja , Karthyek Murthy

The present article explores the application of randomized control techniques in empirical asset pricing and performance evaluation. It introduces geometric random walks, a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, to construct flexible…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-04 Cyril Bachelard , Apostolos Chalkis , Vissarion Fisikopoulos , Elias Tsigaridas

We study the problem of computing the tightest upper and lower bounds on the probability that the sum of $n$ dependent Bernoulli random variables exceeds an integer $k$. Under knowledge of all pairs of bivariate distributions denoted by a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-16 Divya Padmanabhan , Karthik Natarajan

We use tools from random matrix theory to study the multi-spiked tensor model, i.e., a rank-$r$ deformation of a symmetric random Gaussian tensor. In particular, thanks to the nature of local optimization methods used to find the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Yang Qi , Alexis Decurninge

We introduce weighted Markovian graphs, a random walk model that decouples the transition dynamics of a Markov chain from (random) edge weights representing the cost of traversing each edge. This decoupling allows us to study the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Thao Le , Robbert van der Burg , Bernd Heidergott , Ines Lindner , Alessandro Zocca

Since Kilmer et al. introduced the new multiplication method between two third-order tensors around 2008 and third-order tensors with such multiplication structure are also called as T-product tensors, T-product tensors have been applied to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-06 Shih Yu Chang , Yimin Wei

The Chernoff bound is an important inequality relation in probability theory. The original version of the Chernoff bound is to give an exponential decreasing bound on the tail distribution of sums of independent random variables. Recent…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Shih Yu Chang