Related papers: Betting Against (Bad) Beta
We study a notion of good-deal hedging, that corresponds to good-deal valuation for generalized good-deal constraints. Under model uncertainty about the market prices of risk of hedging assets, a robust approach leads to a reduction or even…
We consider an equity-linked contract whose payoff depends on the lifetime of policy holder and the stock price. We assume the limited capital for hedging and we provide with the best strategy for an insurance company in the meaning of so…
Buyers (e.g., advertisers) often have limited financial and processing resources, and so their participation in auctions is throttled. Changes to auctions may affect bids or throttling and any change may affect what winners pay. This paper…
This paper studies the dividend and capital injection problem under a diffusion risk model with general discount functions. A proportional cost is imposed when injecting capitals. For exponential discounting as time-consistent benchmark, we…
In a seminal paper, McAfee (1992) presented the first dominant strategy truthful mechanism for double auction. His mechanism attains nearly optimal gain-from-trade when the market is sufficiently large. However, his mechanism may leave…
We study the effect of imperfect memory on decision making in the context of a stochastic sequential action-reward problem. An agent chooses a sequence of actions which generate discrete rewards at different rates. She is allowed to make…
This note proposes a procedure for enhancing the quality of probabilistic prediction algorithms via betting against their predictions. It is inspired by the success of the conformal test martingales that have been developed recently.
The combination of the Bayesian game and learning has a rich history, with the idea of controlling a single agent in a system composed of multiple agents with unknown behaviors given a set of types, each specifying a possible behavior for…
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have historically relied on trend-following rules that operate on vastly different horizons from long-term breakouts that capture major directional moves to short-term momentum signals that thrive in…
We consider the problem of Adverse Selection and optimal derivative design within a Principal-Agent framework. The principal's income is exposed to non-hedgeable risk factors arising, for instance, from weather or climate phenomena. She…
We derive formulas for the performance of capital assets in continuous time from an efficient market hypothesis, with no stochastic assumptions and no assumptions about the beliefs or preferences of investors. Our efficient market…
Factor investing is ultimately grounded in market logic - the latent mechanism behind observed alpha factors that explains why they should persist across assets and regimes. However, recent factor mining prioritizes factor discovery over…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
We consider the classic veto bargaining model but allow the agenda setter to engage in persuasion to convince the veto player to approve her proposal. We fully characterize the optimal proposal and experiment when Vetoer has quadratic loss,…
We introduce the factored bandits model, which is a framework for learning with limited (bandit) feedback, where actions can be decomposed into a Cartesian product of atomic actions. Factored bandits incorporate rank-1 bandits as a special…
We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large…
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson…
Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike commonly reported p-values for standard null…
The most well known probability distribution of probabilities is the Beta distribution. If we have observed $r$ `successes', each having a probability $\theta$, and $n-r$ `failures', each having a probability $1-\theta$. In this paper we…
In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each…