Related papers: Modelling multiplex testing for outbreak Control
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
During Covid-19 outbreaks, school closures are employed as part of governments' non-pharmaceutical interventions around the world to reduce the number of contacts and keep the reproduction number below 1. Yet, prolonged school closures have…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
The epidemic spreading of a disease can be described by a contact network whose nodes are persons or centers of contagion and links heterogeneous relations among them. We provide a procedure to identify multiple sources of an outbreak or…
Motivated with various responses of world governments to COVID-19, here we develop a toy model of the dependence epidemics spreading on the availability of tests for disease. Our model, that we call SUDR+K, is based on usual SIR model, but…
Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Retirement homes are particularly vulnerable due to the higher mortality risk of infected elderly individuals. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of…
The COVID-19 crisis highlighted the importance of non-medical interventions, such as testing and isolation of infected individuals, in the control of epidemics. Here, we show how to minimize testing needs while maintaining the number of…
Based on the well known SIR model, this paper develops a model for predicting the number of necessary testings of asymptomatic persons in order to push Reff below 1, thus suppressing an outbreak. The model considers R0, time for obtaining a…
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…
Epidemic outbreaks can cause critical health concerns and severe global economic crises. For countries or regions with new infectious disease outbreaks, it is essential to generate preventive strategies by learning lessons from others with…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
Genomic surveillance of infectious diseases allows monitoring circulating and emerging variants and quantifying their epidemic potential. However, due to the high costs associated with genomic sequencing, only a limited number of samples…
Accurate and timely identification of hospital outbreak clusters is crucial for preventing the spread of infections that have epidemic potential. While assessing pathogen similarity through whole genome sequencing (WGS) is considered the…
I study the economic effects of testing during the outbreak of a novel disease. I propose a model where testing permits isolation of the infected and provides agents with information about the prevalence and lethality of the disease.…
Repeated asymptomatic screening for SARS-CoV-2 promises to control spread of the virus but would require too many resources to implement at scale. Group testing is promising for screening more people with fewer test resources: multiple…
The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…
In light of the continuous transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 coupled with a significant decline in clinical testing, there is a pressing need for scalable, cost-effective, long-term, passive surveillance tools to effectively monitor…
Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation…
Monitoring wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 yields a low-cost, noninvasive method for tracking disease prevalence and provides early warning signs of upcoming outbreaks in the serviced communities. There is tremendous clinical and…