Related papers: The Turing Valley: How AI Capabilities Shape Labor…
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks an existential rupture in economic and political order, dissolving the historic boundaries between labor and capital. Unlike past technological advancements, AGI is both a worker and…
This study investigates the labor market consequences of AI by analyzing near real-time changes in employment status and work hours across occupations in relation to advances in AI capabilities. We construct a dynamic Occupational AI…
Research has a long history of discussing what is superior in predicting certain outcomes: statistical methods or the human brain. This debate has repeatedly been sparked off by the remarkable technological advances in the field of…
Discussion about the replacement of intellectual human labour by ``thinking machines'' has been present in the public and expert discourse since the creation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as an idea and terminology since the middle of the…
Generative AI is directional: it performs well in some task directions and poorly in others. Knowledge work is directional and endogenous as well: workers can satisfy the same job requirements with different mixes of tasks. We develop a…
Throughout the modern era, when new technologies displaced workers, societies adapted through the same mechanism: education raised the cognitive ceiling, producing workers capable of tasks machines could not yet reach. Generative AI may be…
Creativity is a fundamental pillar of human expression and a driving force behind innovation, yet it now stands at a crossroads. As artificial intelligence advances at an astonishing pace, the question arises: can machines match and…
The terms 'human-level artificial intelligence' and 'artificial general intelligence' are widely used to refer to the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) with potentially extreme impacts on society. These terms are poorly…
Motivated by concerns that AI-driven entry-level automation may deprive new generations of valuable work experience, this paper studies how technological change affects the intergenerational transmission of tacit knowledge -- practical,…
In 1950, Alan Turing proposed an imitation game as the ultimate test of whether a machine was intelligent: could a machine imitate a human so well that its answers to questions indistinguishable from a human. Ever since, creating…
This paper investigates the causal impact of negatively and positively toned ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussions on US students' anticipated labor market outcomes. Our findings reveal students reduce their confidence regarding…
We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic…
The knowledge gap hypothesis suggests that the diffusion of information tends to increase rather than reduce social inequalities. Subsequent research on the digital divide has extended this perspective by focusing on unequal access to and…
Can machines truly think, reason and act in domains like humans? This enduring question continues to shape the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Despite the growing capabilities of models such as GPT-4.5, DeepSeek, Claude…
A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is being increasingly integrated into human problem-solving, yet its effects on individual skill development remain unclear. We examine how both AI usage and informativeness can shape learning in the context of…
The ability of a machine to communicate with humans has long been associated with the general success of AI. This dates back to Alan Turing's epoch-making work in the early 1950s, which proposes that a machine's intelligence can be tested…
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape the way individuals communicate and interact. While this form of AI has the potential to efficiently make numerous human decisions, there is limited understanding of how…
Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) marks a pivotal moment in human history. It presents the opportunity for machines to learn, adapt, and perform tasks that have the potential to assist people, from everyday activities to their…
In coming years or decades, artificial general intelligence (AGI) may surpass human capabilities across many critical domains. We argue that, without substantial effort to prevent it, AGIs could learn to pursue goals that are in conflict…