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Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…
Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…
In this work we present a general representation formula for the price of a vulnerable European option, and the related CVA in stochastic (either rough or not) volatility models for the underlying's price, when admitting correlation with…
The paper builds a Variance-Gamma (VG) model with five parameters: location ($\mu$), symmetry ($\delta$), volatility ($\sigma$), shape ($\alpha$), and scale ($\theta$); and studies its application to the pricing of European options. The…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
This work focuses on the dynamic hedging of financial derivatives, where a reinforcement learning algorithm is designed to minimize the variance of the delta hedging process. In contrast to previous research in this area, we apply…
In this paper, we present a method for constructing a (static) portfolio of co-maturing European options whose price sign is determined by the skewness level of the associated implied volatility. This property holds regardless of the…
Compared to consumer lending, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (mSME) credit risk modelling is particularly challenging, as, often, the same sources of information are not available. Therefore, it is standard policy for a loan officer to…
In the context of Just-In-Time Software Defect Prediction (JIT-SDP), Concept drift (CD) can occur due to changes in the software development process, the complexity of the software, or changes in user behavior that may affect the stability…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
We model the term structure of the forward default intensity and the default density by using L\'evy random fields, which allow us to consider the credit derivatives with an after-default recovery payment. As applications, we study the…
A Bayesian analytics framework that precisely quantifies uncertainty offers a significant advance for financial risk management. We develop an integrated approach that consistently enhances the handling of risk in market volatility…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
The emerging deep learning (DL) technology has recently exhibited great potential in data-driven short-term voltage stability (SVS) assessment of complex power grids. However, without sufficient attention to the time-varying topological…
This study proposes a novel approach to ensemble prediction, called "covariate-dependent stacking" (CDST). Unlike traditional stacking and model averaging methods, CDST allows model weights to vary flexibly as a function of covariates,…
This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection…
Accurate financial volatility forecasting is crucial but challenged by the non-linear, highly correlated nature of market data. Recently, quantum computing has emerged as a promising paradigm for solving complex high-dimensional sampling…
This paper studies the consequences of capturing non-linear dependence among the covariates that drive the default of different obligors and the overall riskiness of their credit portfolio. Joint default modeling is, without loss of…
Stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is a stochastic process, can capture most of the essential stylized facts of implied volatility surfaces and give more realistic dynamics of the volatility smile/skew. However, they come…
In batch learning, stability together with existence and uniqueness of the solution corresponds to well-posedness of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) methods; recently, it was proved that CV_loo stability is necessary and sufficient for…