Related papers: Simulating Continuous-Time Autoregressive Moving A…
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by general L\'{e}vy process are considered in this paper. We derive strongly consistent estimators for the moments of the underlying L\'{e}vy process and for the mean reverting parameter of the…
Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…
We derive an explicit representation for the transition law of a $p$-tempered $\alpha$-stable process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type and use it to develop a methodology for simulation. Our results apply in both the univariate and multivariate…
In this paper we present a parametric estimation method for certain multi-parameter heavy-tailed L\'evy-driven moving averages. The theory relies on recent multivariate central limit theorems obtained in [3] via Malliavin calculus on…
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
In this paper we define and characterize cointegrated continuous-time linear state-space models. A main result is that a cointegrated continuous-time linear state-space model can be represented as a sum of a L\'evy process and a stationary…
A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…
We consider a new method of the semiparametric statistical estimation for the continuous-time moving average L\'evy processes. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators, and show that these rates are optimal in the minimax…
This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…
The question of existence and properties of stationary solutions to Langevin equations driven by noise processes with stationary increments is discussed, with particular focus on noise processes of pseudo-moving-average type. On account of…
Subspace methods like canonical variate analysis (CVA) are regression based methods for the estimation of linear dynamic state space models. They have been shown to deliver accurate (consistent and asymptotically equivalent to quasi maximum…
We give an explicit representation for the transition law of a tempered stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and use it to develop a rejection sampling algorithm for exact simulation of increments from this process. Our results apply to…
We propose a parsimonious stochastic model for characterising the distributional and temporal properties of rainfall. The model is based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Hougaard L\'evy process. We derive properties…
Consider a multivariate L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process where the stationary distribution or background driving L\'evy process is from a parametric family. We derive the likelihood function assuming that the innovation term is…
In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…
In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…
Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous…
In this article we consider L\'evy driven continuous time moving average processes observed on a lattice, which are stationary time series. We show asymptotic normality of the sample mean, the sample autocovariances and the sample…
In this paper, we consider the Whittle estimator for the parameters of a stationary solution of a continuous-time linear state space model sampled at low frequencies. In our context the driving process is a L\'evy process which allows…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…