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In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Decision forests are widely used for classification and regression tasks. A lesser known property of tree-based methods is that one can construct a proximity matrix from the tree(s), and these proximity matrices are induced kernels. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Sambit Panda , Cencheng Shen , Joshua T. Vogelstein

Across research disciplines, cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are commonly implemented to evaluate interventions delivered to groups of participants, such as communities and clinics. Despite advances in the design and analysis of CRTs,…

The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Angela Ting , Antonio R. Linero

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Costanza Tortù , Laura Forastiere

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Within heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) analysis, various estimands have been proposed to capture the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. Recently, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC) has emerged as a promising…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Josh Givens , Song Liu , Henry W J Reeve , Katarzyna Reluga

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

In causal inference, estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTEs) from observational data is critical for understanding how different subgroups respond to treatments, with broad applications such as precision medicine and targeted…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Jiehui Zhou , Xumeng Wang , Kam-Kwai Wong , Wei Zhang , Xingyu Liu , Juntian Zhang , Minfeng Zhu , Wei Chen

Causal machine learning methods can be used to search for treatment effect heterogeneity in high-dimensional datasets even where we lack a strong enough theoretical framework to select variables or make parametric assumptions about data.…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-01 Patrick Rehill , Nicholas Biddle

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

Causal concept effect estimation is gaining increasing interest in the field of interpretable machine learning. This general approach explains the behaviors of machine learning models by estimating the causal effect of human-understandable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-15 Jifan Gao , Guanhua Chen

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

One of the key challenges when developing a predictive model is the capability to describe the domain knowledge and the cause-effect relationships in a simple way. Decision rules are a useful and important methodology in this context,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Francisco Valente , Jorge Henriques , Simão Paredes , Teresa Rocha , Paulo de Carvalho , João Morais

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Rule-based models, e.g., decision trees, are widely used in scenarios demanding high model interpretability for their transparent inner structures and good model expressivity. However, rule-based models are hard to optimize, especially on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Zhuo Wang , Wei Zhang , Ning Liu , Jianyong Wang