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To evaluate a single cause of a binary effect, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation, while Pearl (2015) defined the probabilities of necessity and sufficiency. For assessing the multiple correlated causes of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Shanshan Luo , Yixuan Yu , Chunchen Liu , Feng Xie , Zhi Geng

In this survey we discuss the recent causal panel data literature. This recent literature has focused on credibly estimating causal effects of binary interventions in settings with longitudinal data, emphasizing practical advice for…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-26 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido Imbens

Studying causal effects of continuous treatments is important for gaining a deeper understanding of many interventions, policies, or medications, yet researchers are often left with observational studies for doing so. In the observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-16 Jared D. Huling , Noah Greifer , Guanhua Chen

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Precision medicine is a rapidly expanding area of health research wherein patient level information is used to inform treatment decisions. A statistical framework helps to formalize the individualization of treatment decisions that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Coraline Danieli , Erica Moodie

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-30 David Choi

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is meaningful and practical in healthcare. Existing work mainly relies on the strong ignorability assumption that no hidden confounders exist, which may lead to bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Ruoqi Liu , Changchang Yin , Ping Zhang

It is common practice to use data containing personal information to build predictive models in the framework of empirical risk minimization (ERM). While these models can be highly accurate in prediction, sharing the results from these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-30 Spencer Giddens , Yiwang Zhou , Kevin R. Krull , Tara M. Brinkman , Peter X. K. Song , Fang Liu

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-06 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens , Lihua Lei , Xiaoman Luo

In empirical studies with time-to-event outcomes, investigators often leverage observational data to conduct causal inference on the effect of exposure when randomized controlled trial data is unavailable. Model misspecification and lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-05 Shenbo Xu , Bang Zheng , Bowen Su , Stan Finkelstein , Roy Welsch , Kenney Ng , Ioanna Tzoulaki , Zach Shahn

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Training reliable deep learning models which avoid making overconfident but incorrect predictions is a longstanding challenge. This challenge is further exacerbated when learning has to be differentially private: protection provided to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Stephan Rabanser , Anvith Thudi , Abhradeep Thakurta , Krishnamurthy Dvijotham , Nicolas Papernot

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-08-20 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Kaiji Motegi , Zheng Zhang

We present the first differentially private algorithms for reinforcement learning, which apply to the task of evaluating a fixed policy. We establish two approaches for achieving differential privacy, provide a theoretical analysis of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-08 Borja Balle , Maziar Gomrokchi , Doina Precup

This paper combines causal mediation analysis with double machine learning to control for observed confounders in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption in a high-dimensional setting. We consider the average indirect…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Helmut Farbmacher , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs , Henrika Langen , Martin Spindler

Data collected about individuals is regularly used to make decisions that impact those same individuals. We consider settings where sensitive personal data is used to decide who will receive resources or benefits. While it is well known…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Satya Kuppam , Ryan Mckenna , David Pujol , Michael Hay , Ashwin Machanavajjhala , Gerome Miklau

Estimating causal effects from randomized experiments is only possible if participants are willing to disclose their potentially sensitive responses. Differential privacy, a widely used framework for ensuring an algorithms privacy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 Adel Javanmard , Vahab Mirrokni , Jean Pouget-Abadie