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We present Higher-Order Tensor RNN (HOT-RNN), a novel family of neural sequence architectures for multivariate forecasting in environments with nonlinear dynamics. Long-term forecasting in such systems is highly challenging, since there…

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are a type of statistical model designed to handle sequential data. The model reads a sequence one symbol at a time. Each symbol is processed based on information collected from the previous symbols. With…

We define Recurrent Gaussian Processes (RGP) models, a general family of Bayesian nonparametric models with recurrent GP priors which are able to learn dynamical patterns from sequential data. Similar to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs),…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…

Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…

The SABR model is a cornerstone of interest rate volatility modeling, but its practical application relies heavily on the analytical approximation by Hagan et al., whose accuracy deteriorates for high volatility, long maturities, and…

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

We propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

We observe that the standard log likelihood training objective for a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model of time series data is equivalent to a variational Bayesian training objective, given the proper choice of generative and inference…

Longitudinal data often involve heterogeneity, sparse signals, and contamination from response outliers or high-leverage observations especially in biomedical science. Existing methods usually address only part of this problem, either…

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated state-of-the-art results in a number of autonomous system applications, however many of the underlying algorithms rely on black-box predictions. This results in poor explainability of the…

This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…

High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…

High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…

Through sequential construction of posteriors on observing data online, Bayes' theorem provides a natural framework for continual learning. We develop Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Processes (VAR-GPs), a principled posterior updating…

We present a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for bivariate price-realized volatility time series in financial forecasting. A novel dynamic gamma process model adopted for realized volatility is integrated with traditional Bayesian…

Multivariate network time series are ubiquitous in modern systems, yet existing network autoregressive models typically treat nodes as scalar processes, ignoring cross-variable spillovers. To capture these complex interactions without the…