Related papers: Local statistical moments to capture Kramers-Moyal…
A new optimization procedure for the estimation of Kramers-Moyal coefficients from stationary, one-dimensional, Markovian time series data is presented. The method takes advantage of a recently reported approach that allows to calculate…
We analyze the impact of the sampling interval on the estimation of Kramers-Moyal coefficients. We obtain the finite-time expressions of these coefficients for several standard processes. We also analyze extreme situations such as the…
Stochastic processes are encountered in many contexts, ranging from generation sizes of bacterial colonies and service times in a queueing system to displacements of Brownian particles and frequency fluctuations in an electrical power grid.…
Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a simple and easily visualized method with which to analyze stochastic time series, particularly nonlinear ones. One mechanism that can affect the estimation of the coefficients is geometric projection…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…
We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…
An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated co-volatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and nonsynchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach…
This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…
This paper considers the problem of estimating the population spectral distribution from a sample covariance matrix in large dimensional situations. We generalize the contour-integral based method in Mestre (2008) and present a local moment…
Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…
In this paper, we develop a multi-step estimation procedure to simultaneously estimate the varying-coefficient functions using a local-linear generalized method of moments (GMM) based on continuous moment conditions. To incorporate spatial…
The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…
The Kramers-Moyal analysis is a well established approach to analyze stochastic time series from complex systems. If the sampling interval of a measured time series is too low, systematic errors occur in the analysis results. These errors…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…
This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the…
We introduce a family of local inhomogeneous mark-weighted summary statistics, of order two and higher, for general marked point processes. Depending on how the involved weight function is specified, these summary statistics capture…