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Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-25 James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

We propose a multilevel Monte Carlo-FEM algorithm to solve elliptic Bayesian inverse problems with "Besov random tree prior". These priors are given by a wavelet series with stochastic coefficients, and certain terms in the expansion…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-02-03 Andreas Stein , Viet Ha Hoang

We propose SYNCE (synchronized step correlation enhancement), a new algorithm for coupling Markov chains within multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) estimators. We apply this algorithm to solve Bayesian inverse problems using…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Sanjan C. Muchandimath , Alex A. Gorodetsky

Markov chain (MC) algorithms are ubiquitous in machine learning and statistics and many other disciplines. Typically, these algorithms can be formulated as acceptance rejection methods. In this work we present a novel estimator applicable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Ingmar Schuster , Ilja Klebanov

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

A key challenge in contrastive learning is to generate negative samples from a large sample set to contrast with positive samples, for learning better encoding of the data. These negative samples often follow a softmax distribution which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Chung-Yiu Yau , Hoi-To Wai , Parameswaran Raman , Soumajyoti Sarkar , Mingyi Hong

To deal with very large datasets a mini-batch version of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for general latent variable models is proposed. For exponential models the algorithm is shown…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-30 Tabea Rebafka , Estelle Kuhn , Catherine Matias

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-19 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra

Although evaluation of the expectations on the Ising model is essential in various applications, it is mostly infeasible because of intractable multiple summations. Spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI) is a sampling-based approximation.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-19 Kaiji Sekimoto , Muneki Yasuda

Standard MCMC methods can scale poorly to big data settings due to the need to evaluate the likelihood at each iteration. There have been a number of approximate MCMC algorithms that use sub-sampling ideas to reduce this computational…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-29 Joris Bierkens , Paul Fearnhead , Gareth Roberts

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-05 Synge Todo

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

In many applications, Bayesian inverse problems can give rise to probability distributions which contain complexities due to the Hessian varying greatly across parameter space. This complexity often manifests itself as lower dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-28 Simon L. Cotter , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Paul Russell

Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-28 Kai Zhou , Jiong Tang

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-08 Arka Banerjee , Dootika Vats

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz
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