Related papers: Amortized Bayesian Multilevel Models
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…
Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…
Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…
Machine learning provides algorithms that can learn from data and make inferences or predictions on data. Bayesian networks are a class of graphical models that allow to represent a collection of random variables and their condititional…
Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…
Hierarchical Bayesian networks and neural networks with stochastic hidden units are commonly perceived as two separate types of models. We show that either of these types of models can often be transformed into an instance of the other, by…
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…
Trained ML models are commonly embedded in optimization problems. In many cases, this leads to large-scale NLPs that are difficult to solve to global optimality. While ML models frequently lead to large problems, they also exhibit…
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are of interest from an explainable AI viewpoint, offering transparent probabilistic models for decision support. Baymex is a recently introduced multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for learning discretized BNs,…
There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…
Deep ensembles have been empirically shown to be a promising approach for improving accuracy, uncertainty and out-of-distribution robustness of deep learning models. While deep ensembles were theoretically motivated by the bootstrap,…
Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are widely used to discover latent structure in data, but their success hinges on selecting an appropriate model design. In practice, model specification is difficult and often requires iterative…
Although large language models (LLMs) are becoming increasingly capable of solving challenging real-world tasks, accurately quantifying their uncertainty remains a critical open problem--one that limits their applicability in high-stakes…
Our interest is in multiplex network data with multiple network samples observed across the same set of nodes. Examples originate from a variety of fields, including brain connectivity, international trade networks, and social networks,…
Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…
In this paper, we present an infinite hierarchical non-parametric Bayesian model to extract the hidden factors over observed data, where the number of hidden factors for each layer is unknown and can be potentially infinite. Moreover, the…
Generalized linear models (GLMs) using a regression procedure to fit relationships between predictor and target variables are widely used in automobile insurance data. Here, in the process of ratemaking and in order to compute the premiums…
Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…
Large language models (LLMs) have been extensively studied for their abilities to generate convincing natural language sequences, however their utility for quantitative information retrieval is less well understood. Here we explore the…
The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this…