Related papers: Momentum Informed Inflation-at-Risk
We show, both analytically and numerically, that non-Gaussian tails in the probability density function of curvature perturbations arise in ultra-slow-roll inflation from the $\delta N$ formalism, without invoking stochastic inflation.…
A period of inflation in the early universe produces a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational waves over a huge range in wavelength. If the amplitude of this gravitational wave background is large enough to be detectable with…
We examine the momentum dependence of the bispectrum of two-field inflationary models within the long-wavelength formalism. We determine the sources of scale dependence in the expression for the parameter of non-Gaussianity fNL and study…
Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of…
Financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon with important effects on the real economy. The financial system is inherently fragile and it is therefore of great importance to be able to measure and characterize its systemic stability.…
Cosmological inflation predicts that the scalar spectral index "runs" with scale. Constraints on the values of the spectral runnings, $\alpha_s\equiv \textrm{d} n_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$ and $\beta_s\equiv \textrm{d}\alpha_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$,…
Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…
We study the detectability, given CMB polarization maps, of departures from the inflationary consistency equation, r \equiv T/S \simeq -5 n_T, where T and S are the tensor and scalar contributions to the quadrupole variance, respectively.…
In many macroeconomic applications, confidence intervals for impulse responses are constructed by estimating VAR models in levels - ignoring cointegration rank uncertainty. We investigate the consequences of ignoring this uncertainty. We…
We comment on recently proposed dissipative inflationary models. It is shown that the strength of the inflationary expansion is related to a specific combination of thermodynamic variables which is known to measure the instability of…
In this paper, we investigate the potential-driven inflation models with a disformal coupling to Einstein Gravity, to find out the effects of such a coupling on these models. We consider a simple coupling form which introduces only one…
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit…
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution…
The effect of the length of inflation on the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations is estimated using the power-law inflation model with a scale factor of a(t) = t^q. Considering various pre-inflation models with…
We analyze the impact of breaking diffeomorphism invariance in the inflaton sector. In particular, we consider inflaton models which are invariant under the subgroup of transverse diffeomorphisms and address the possibility of implementing…
We examine the hypothesis that inflation is primarily driven by vacuum energy at a scale indicated by gauge coupling unification. Concretely, we consider a class of hybrid inflation models wherein the vacuum energy associated with a grand…
We study classes of inflation models driven by antisymmetric tensor field, with minimal and nonminimal couplings to gravity, that address known issues of such models considered in the past. First we show that with a different choice of the…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
The integration and innovation of finance and technology have gradually transformed the financial system into a complex one. Analyses of the causesd of abnormal fluctuations in the financial market to extract early warning indicators…
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect…