Related papers: Momentum Informed Inflation-at-Risk

A new family of inflationary models is introduced and analysed. The behaviour of the parameters characterising the models suggest preferred values, which generate the most interesting testable predictions. Results are further improved if…

Recent results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe have been called a corroboration, or even a confirmation, of inflation. Yet, the results include features that require, at least, a significant distortion of what is usually meant…

We examine a wide class of multi-field inflationary models based on fields that decay or stabilize during inflation in a staggered fashion. The fields driving assisted inflation are on flat, short stretches, before they encounter a sharp…

Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…

The interplay among the possible variation of gauge coupling and the inflationary dynamics is investigated in a simplified toy model. Depending upon various parameters (scalar mass, curvature scale at the end of inflation and at the onset…

Slow-roll inflation generically makes several predictions: a flat Universe, primordial adiabatic density perturbations, and a stochastic gravity-wave background. Each inflation model will further predict specific relations between the…

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…

We present empirical evidence on the relationship between demand shocks and price changes, conditional on returns to scale. We find that in industries with decreasing returns to scale, demand increases (which raise costs) correspond to…

We consider inflation within the context of what is arguably the simplest non-metric extension of Einstein gravity. There non-metricity is described by a single graviscalar field with a non-minimal kinetic coupling to the inflaton field…

In this work we propose a statistical approach to handling sources of theoretical uncertainty in string theory models of inflation. By viewing a model of inflation as a probabilistic graph, we show that there is an inevitable information…

Picking out DBI scalar field as inflation, the slow-rolling inflationary scenario is studied by attributing an exponential time function to scale factor; known as intermediate inflation. The perturbation parameters of the model are…

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…

An inflationary stage dominated by a D-term avoids the slow-roll problem of inflation in supergravity and can naturally emerge in theories with a non-anomalous or anomalous U(1) gauge symmetry. In this talk different aspects of D-term…

A reformulation of inflationary model analyses appeared recently, in which inflationary observables are determined by the structure of a pole in the inflaton kinetic term rather than the shape of the inflaton potential. We comprehensively…

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the…

Using the latest observational data, we constrain the inflationary dynamics and the subsequent reheating epoch. Predictions for both phases can be significantly improved by employing numerically computed results compared to the slow-roll…

This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…

We study `hilltop' inflation, in which inflation takes place near a maximum of the potential. Viewed as a model of inflation after the observable Universe leaves the horizon (observable inflation) hilltop inflation is rather generic. If the…

We summarize our work on constant roll inflationary models. It was understood recently that constant roll inflation, in a regime beyond the slow roll approximation, can give models that are in agreement with the observational constraints.…