Related papers: Optimised Annealed Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers
Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable…
Sampling from a multimodal distribution is a fundamental and challenging problem in computational science and statistics. Among various approaches proposed for this task, one popular method is Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS). In this…
We analyze the optimized adaptive importance sampler (OAIS) for performing Monte Carlo integration with general proposals. We leverage a classical result which shows that the bias and the mean-squared error (MSE) of the importance sampling…
Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) methods are recently proposed to accelerate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using a machine learning model. With latent generative models, SLMC methods realize efficient Monte Carlo updates with less…
Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is…
Surrogate models have become ubiquitous in science and engineering for their capability of emulating expensive computer codes, necessary to model and investigate complex phenomena. Bayesian emulators based on Gaussian processes adequately…
Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) moves particles along a Markov chain from a tractable initial distribution to an intractable target distribution. The recently proposed Differentiable AIS (DAIS) (Geffner and Domke, 2021; Zhang et al.,…
We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…
A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…
Sampling from the full posterior distribution of high-dimensional non-linear, non-Gaussian latent dynamical models presents significant computational challenges. While Particle Gibbs (also known as conditional sequential Monte Carlo) is…
We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies…
In several implementations of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods it is natural, and important in terms of algorithmic efficiency, to exploit the information of the history of the samples to optimally tune their subsequent propagations. In…
We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…
Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…
We introduce a new class of adaptive importance samplers leveraging adaptive optimisation tools, which we term AdaOAIS. We build on Optimised Adaptive Importance Samplers (OAIS), a class of techniques that adapt proposals to improve the…
Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…
The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…
Delayed-acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC) samples from a probability distribution via a two-stages version of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, by combining the target distribution with a "surrogate" (i.e. an approximate and…