Related papers: Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting

Recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit strong perceptual reasoning abilities, yet they often struggle to adapt efficiently when encountering novel tasks at test time. In contrast, humans leverage the metacognitive model with memory,…

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning abilities, but translating reasoning into actions in the real world remains challenging. In particular, it remains unclear how to complete a given task provably within a minimum…

Social surveys in computational social science are well-designed by elaborate domain theories that can effectively reflect the interviewee's deep thoughts without concealing their true feelings. The candidate questionnaire options highly…

The honesty of large language models (LLMs) is a critical alignment challenge, especially as advanced systems with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may strategically deceive humans. Unlike traditional honesty issues on LLMs, which could be…

People acquire concepts through rich physical and social experiences and use them to understand and navigate the world. In contrast, large language models (LLMs), trained solely through next-token prediction on text, exhibit strikingly…

Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated strong potential in training large language models (LLMs) capable of complex reasoning for real-world problem solving. More recently, RL has been leveraged to create sophisticated LLM-based…

Large language models (LLMs) typically enhance their performance through either the retrieval of semantically similar information or the improvement of their reasoning capabilities. However, a significant challenge remains in effectively…

With the development of artificial intelligence (AI), large language models (LLM) are widely used in many fields. However, the reasoning ability of LLM is still very limited when it comes to mathematical reasoning. Mathematics plays an…

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human…

This paper investigates models of event implications. Specifically, how well models predict entity state-changes, by targeting their understanding of physical attributes. Nominally, Large Language models (LLM) have been exposed to…

Large language models (LLMs) have been routinely used to solve various tasks using step-by-step reasoning. However, the structure of intermediate reasoning steps, or thoughts, is rigid and unidirectional, such as chains, trees, or…

Understanding a program's runtime reasoning behavior, meaning how intermediate states and control flows lead to final execution results, is essential for reliable code generation, debugging, and automated reasoning. Although large language…

Significant advancements have occurred in the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) for social simulations. Despite this, their abilities to perform teaming in task-oriented social events are underexplored. Such capabilities are…

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting…

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement…

Presupposition projection in conditionals is central to theories of meaning and pragmatics, yet it remains largely unevaluated in large language models. We address this gap through a parallel behavioral study comparing human judgments and…

Reward models (RMs) play a critical role in enhancing the reasoning performance of LLMs. For example, they can provide training signals to finetune LLMs during reinforcement learning (RL) and help select the best answer from multiple…

Understanding and reasoning over tables is a critical capability for many real-world applications. Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise on this task, but current approaches remain limited. Fine-tuning based methods strengthen…

Advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential in facilitating high-level reasoning, logical reasoning and robotics planning. Recently, LLMs have also been able to generate reward functions for low-level…

Language models (LMs) are sentence-completion engines trained on massive corpora. LMs have emerged as a significant breakthrough in natural-language processing, providing capabilities that go far beyond sentence completion including…