Related papers: Hawkes process with tempered Mittag-Leffler kernel
The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…
This paper will demonstrate some new techniques for developing the theory of Asian (arithmetic average) options pricing. We discuss the basic derivation of the diffusion equations, and how various techniques from potential theory can be…
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network.…
The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
This study considers a new multi-term urn process that has a correlation in the same term and temporal correlation. The objective is to clarify the relationship between the urn model and the Hawkes process. Correlation in the same term is…
Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…
A Hilbert space embedding of a distribution---in short, a kernel mean embedding---has recently emerged as a powerful tool for machine learning and inference. The basic idea behind this framework is to map distributions into a reproducing…
Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g.,…
We introduce a notion of geometric tempering using exponentially-dampened Mittag-Leffler tempering functions and closely investigate the univariate case. Characteristic exponents and cumulants are calculated, as well as spectral densities.…
The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…
We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly…
It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…
We consider the learning of multi-agent Hawkes processes, a model containing multiple Hawkes processes with shared endogenous impact functions and different exogenous intensities. In the framework of stochastic maximum likelihood…
Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
We model the arrival of mid-price changes in the E-Mini S&P futures contract as a self-exciting Hawkes process. Using several estimation methods, we find that the Hawkes kernel is power-law with a decay exponent close to -1.15 at short…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…