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Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Costanza Tortù , Laura Forastiere

Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, i.e., with a node's network partners being informative about the node's…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Edward McFowland , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

A prominent threat to causal inference about peer effects over social networks is the presence of homophily bias, that is, social influence between friends and families is entangled with common characteristics or underlying similarities…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Lan Liu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose an Embedding Network Autoregressive Model for multivariate networked longitudinal data. We assume the network is generated from a latent variable model, and these unobserved variables are included in a structural peer effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Jae Ho Chang , Subhadeep Paul

Increasingly, there is a marked interest in estimating causal effects under network interference due to the fact that interference manifests naturally in networked experiments. However, network information generally is available only up to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-02 Wenrui Li , Daniel L. Sussman , Eric D. Kolaczyk

In this work, we formalize the problem of causal inference over graph-based relational time-series data where each node in the graph has one or more time-series associated to it. We propose causal inference models for this problem that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-27 Ryan Rossi , Somdeb Sarkhel , Nesreen Ahmed

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

A fundamental problem in network experiments is selecting an appropriate experimental design in order to precisely estimate a given causal effect of interest. In this work, we propose the Conflict Graph Design, a general approach for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Vardis Kandiros , Charilaos Pipis , Constantinos Daskalakis , Christopher Harshaw

When designing control strategies for an infectious disease it is critical to identify the key pathways of transmission. Data on infected hosts - when they were born, where they lived and with whom they interacted - can help infer sources…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-27 Anthony J Wood , Aeron R Sanchez , Rowland R Kao

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Estimating total treatment effects in the presence of network interference typically requires knowledge of the underlying interaction structure. However, in many practical settings, network data is either unavailable, incomplete, or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Albert Tan , Sadegh Shirani , James Nordlund , Mohsen Bayati

The presence of interference, where the outcome of an individual may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of neighboring nodes, can lead to biased causal effect estimation. Current approaches to network experiment design focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Zahra Fatemi , Jean Pouget-Abadie , Elena Zheleva

Evaluating the impact of policy interventions on respondents who are embedded in a social network is often challenging due to the presence of network interference within the treatment groups, as well as between treatment and non-treatment…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Eugene Ang , Prasanta Bhattacharya , Andrew Lim

Graph data often contain noisy and spurious correlations that mask the true causal relationships, which are essential for enabling graph models to make predictions based on the underlying causal structure of the data. Dependence on spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Simi Job , Xiaohui Tao , Taotao Cai , Haoran Xie , Jianming Yong

Peer influence on effort devoted to some activity is often studied when effort is unobserved, and the researcher instead observes an outcome that combines effort with other shocks. For instance, in education, achievement measures such as…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Aristide Houndetoungan , Cristelle Kouame , Michael Vlassopoulos

We propose an easy-to-use adjustment estimator for the effect of a treatment based on observational data from a single (social) network of units. The approach allows for interactions among units within the network, called interference, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Meta-Lina Spohn , Leonard Henckel , Marloes H. Maathuis

This paper investigates the case of interference, when a unit's treatment also affects other units' outcome. When interference is at work, policy evaluation mostly relies on the use of randomized experiments under cluster interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Laura Forastiere , Davide Del Prete , Valerio Leone Sciabolazza

We introduce a new family of graphical models that consists of graphs with possibly directed, undirected and bidirected edges but without directed cycles. We show that these models are suitable for representing causal models with additive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-30 Jose M. Peña , Marcus Bendtsen
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