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This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…

We propose a novel class of dynamic shrinkage processes for Bayesian time series and regression analysis. Building upon a global-local framework of prior construction, in which continuous scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions are…

We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…

Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…

Due to developments in instruments and computers, functional observations are increasingly popular. However, effective methodologies for flexibly estimating the underlying trends with valid uncertainty quantification for a sequence of…

In this article, we propose a simple method to perform variable selection as a post model-fitting exercise using continuous shrinkage priors such as the popular horseshoe prior. The proposed Signal Adaptive Variable Selector (SAVS) approach…

We consider the finite element (FE) approximation of the shallow water equations (SWE) by considering discretizations in which both space and time are established using an unconditionally stable FE method. Particularly, we consider the…

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with adaptive steps is widely used to train deep neural networks and generative models. Most theoretical results assume that it is possible to obtain unbiased gradient estimators, which is not the case in…

This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

We adaptively estimate both changepoints and local outlier processes in a Bayesian dynamic linear model with global-local shrinkage priors in a novel model we call Adaptive Bayesian Changepoints with Outliers (ABCO). We utilize a…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Non-stationary count time series characterized by features such as abrupt changes and fluctuations about the trend arise in many scientific domains including biophysics, ecology, energy, epidemiology, and social science domains. Current…

We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article…

We explore a link between stochastic volatility (SV) and path-dependent volatility (PDV) models. Using assumed density filtering, we map a given SV model into a corresponding PDV representation. The resulting specification is lightweight,…

Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and…

This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…

We present a locally adaptive nonparametric curve fitting method that operates within a fully Bayesian framework. This method uses shrinkage priors to induce sparsity in order-k differences in the latent trend function, providing a…