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In this paper, we study the relationship between the short-end of the local and the implied volatility surfaces. Our results, based on Malliavin calculus techniques, recover the recent $\frac{1}{H+3/2}$ rule (where $H$ denotes the Hurst…
Classical calibration methods in hydrology typically rely on a single cost function computed on long-term streamflow series. Even when hydrological models achieve acceptable scores in NSE and KGE, imbalances can still arise between overall…
Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…
In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions,…
Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged…
The Multi Variate Mixture Dynamics model is a tractable, dynamical, arbitrage-free multivariate model characterized by transparency on the dependence structure, since closed form formulae for terminal correlations, average correlations and…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Let $\sigma_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity $t$ for a strike $K=S_0 e^{xt}$, where $x\in\bbR$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the underlying. We show that $\sigma_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity $t$ tends to…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…
For quantitative trading risk management purposes, we present a novel idea: the realized local volatility surface. Concisely, it stands for the conditional expected volatility when sudden market behaviors of the underlying occur. One is…
We consider the problem of valuing a European option written on an asset whose dynamics are described by an exponential L\'evy-type model. In our framework, both the volatility and jump-intensity are allowed to vary stochastically in time…
We address the inverse problem of local volatility surface calibration from market given option prices. We integrate the ever-increasing flow of option price information into the well-accepted local volatility model of Dupire. This leads to…
Options with maturities below one week, hereafter "ultra-short-term" options, have seen a sharp increase in trading activity in recent years. Yet, these instruments are difficult to price jointly using classical pricing models due to the…
Accurately characterizing the implied volatility curves is a central challenge in option pricing and risk management. The classical SABR model by Hagan et al. has been widely adopted in practice due to its well-defined stochastic volatility…
Despite the success of the popular kernelized support vector machines, they have two major limitations: they are restricted to Positive Semi-Definite (PSD) kernels, and their training complexity scales at least quadratically with the size…
In a recent article the authors obtained a formula which relates explicitly the tail of risk neutral returns with the wing behavior of the Black Scholes implied volatility smile. In situations where precise tail asymptotics are unknown but…
The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration…
Fitting simultaneously SPX and VIX smiles is known to be one of the most challenging problems in volatility modeling. A long-standing conjecture due to Julien Guyon is that it may not be possible to calibrate jointly these two quantities…
The Bass Local Volatility Model (Bass-LV), as studied in [Conze and Henry-Labordere, 2021], stands out for its ability to eliminate the need for interpolation between maturities. This offers a significant advantage over traditional LV…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and…