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Scaling laws are useful guides for derisking expensive training runs, as they predict performance of large models using cheaper, small-scale experiments. However, there remain gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are…

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical…

Neural scaling laws suggest that the test error of large language models trained online decreases polynomially as the model size and data size increase. However, such scaling can be unsustainable when running out of new data. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Licong Lin , Jingfeng Wu , Peter L. Bartlett

Continual Pre-Training (CPT) has become a popular and effective method to apply strong foundation models to specific downstream tasks. In this work, we explore the learning dynamics throughout the CPT process for large language models. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Xingjin Wang , Howe Tissue , Lu Wang , Linjing Li , Daniel Dajun Zeng

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Blake Bordelon , Alexander Atanasov , Cengiz Pehlevan

Neural scaling laws describe how the performance of deep neural networks scales with key factors such as training data size, model complexity, and training time, often following power-law behaviors over multiple orders of magnitude. Despite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Roman Worschech , Bernd Rosenow

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose…

Continual Pre-training (CPT) serves as a fundamental approach for adapting foundation models to domain-specific applications. Scaling laws for pre-training define a power-law relationship between dataset size and the test loss of an LLM.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Lei Liu , Hao Zhu , Yue Shen , Zhixuan Chu , Jian Wang , Jinjie Gu , Kui Ren

The prediction of learning curves for Natural Language Processing (NLP) models enables informed decision-making to meet specific performance objectives, while reducing computational overhead and lowering the costs associated with dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Viktoria Schram , Markus Hiller , Daniel Beck , Trevor Cohn

Training large models is both resource-intensive and time-consuming, making it crucial to understand the quantitative relationship between model performance and hyperparameters. In this paper, we present an empirical law that describes how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Kairong Luo , Haodong Wen , Shengding Hu , Zhenbo Sun , Zhiyuan Liu , Maosong Sun , Kaifeng Lyu , Wenguang Chen

What scaling limits govern neural network training dynamics when model size and training time grow in tandem? We show that despite the complex interactions between architecture, training algorithms, and data, compute-optimally trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Shikai Qiu , Lechao Xiao , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Jeffrey Pennington , Atish Agarwala

In this work, we provide a sharp theory of scaling laws for two-layer neural networks trained on a class of hierarchical multi-index targets, in a genuinely representation-limited regime. We derive exact information-theoretic scaling laws…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Leonardo Defilippis , Florent Krzakala , Bruno Loureiro , Antoine Maillard

Scaling laws aim to accurately predict model performance across different scales. Existing scaling-law studies almost exclusively rely on cross-entropy as the evaluation metric. However, cross-entropy provides only a partial view of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Baoqing Yue , Jinyuan Zhou , Zixi Wei , Jingtao Zhan , Qingyao Ai , Yiqun Liu

Scaling laws, a defining feature of deep learning, reveal a striking power-law improvement in model performance with increasing dataset and model size. Yet, their mathematical origins, especially the scaling exponent, have remained elusive.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Yuda Bi , Vince D Calhoun

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Maor Ivgi , Yair Carmon , Jonathan Berant

Recent work has shown that, in generative modeling, cross-entropy loss improves smoothly with model size and training compute, following a power law plus constant scaling law. One challenge in extending these results to reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Jacob Hilton , Jie Tang , John Schulman

Empirically, large-scale deep learning models often satisfy a neural scaling law: the test error of the trained model improves polynomially as the model size and data size grow. However, conventional wisdom suggests the test error consists…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Licong Lin , Jingfeng Wu , Sham M. Kakade , Peter L. Bartlett , Jason D. Lee

The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law, that loss decreases as a power law with model size, remains unclear. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yizhou Liu , Ziming Liu , Jeff Gore

Running faster will only get you so far -- it is generally advisable to first understand where the roads lead, then get a car ... The renaissance of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) over the last decade is accompanied by an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Jonathan S. Rosenfeld

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) have provided useful guidance in training ever larger models for predictable performance gains. Time series forecasting shares a similar sequential structure to language, and is amenable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Thomas D. P. Edwards , James Alvey , Justin Alsing , Nam H. Nguyen , Benjamin D. Wandelt