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In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Bayesian inference involves the specification of a statistical model by a statistician or practitioner, with careful thought about what each parameter represents. This results in particularly interpretable models which can be used to…

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable distributions and integrals with respect to them. The origin of IS dates from the early 1950s. In the last decades, the rise of the Bayesian paradigm…

The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms…

Additive feature explanations rely primarily on game-theoretic notions such as the Shapley value by viewing features as cooperating players. The Shapley value's popularity in and outside of explainable AI stems from its axiomatic…

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially…

The penalized profile sampler for semiparametric inference is an extension of the profile sampler method (Lee, Kosorok and Fine, 2005) obtained by profiling a penalized log-likelihood. The idea is to base inference on the posterior…

Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given…

One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case…

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

The quasi-Monte Carlo method is widely used in computational finance, whose efficiency strongly depends on the smoothness and effective dimension of the integrand. In this work, we investigate the combination of importance sampling and the…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

Data subsampling is widely used to speed up the training of large-scale recommendation systems. Most subsampling methods are model-based and often require a pre-trained pilot model to measure data importance via e.g. sample hardness.…

Matrix factorization (MF) has become a common approach to collaborative filtering, due to ease of implementation and scalability to large data sets. Two existing drawbacks of the basic model is that it does not incorporate side information…

Importance sampling is widely used in machine learning and statistics, but its power is limited by the restriction of using simple proposals for which the importance weights can be tractably calculated. We address this problem by studying…