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Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 Ethan M. Alt , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) offer a practical alternative for addressing logistical challenges and ensuring feasibility in community health, education, and prevention studies, even though randomized controlled trials are considered the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Jooyeon Lee , M. S. , Evan Kwiatkowski , Ph. D

An over-reliance on the less-affected limb for functional tasks at the expense of the paretic limb and in spite of recovered capacity is an often-observed phenomenon in survivors of hemispheric stroke. The difference between capacity for…

Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) has been studied extensively in conventional, single-stage clinical trials, where it has been shown to yield ethical and statistical benefits, especially in trials with many treatment arms. However, RAR…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Peter Norwood , Marie Davidian , Eric Laber

In placebo-controlled randomized trials, the post-randomization use of concomitant medications may be higher in the placebo arm than in the treatment arm. This may dilute the full benefits of the randomized drug as estimated by the…

When evaluating the effectiveness of a drug, a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) is often considered the gold standard due to its perfect randomization. While RCT assures strong internal validity, its restricted external validity poses…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-07 Kuan Jiang , Xin-xing Lai , Shu Yang , Ying Gao , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Traditional multi-armed bandit (MAB) formulations usually make certain assumptions about the underlying arms' distributions, such as bounds on the support or their tail behaviour. Moreover, such parametric information is usually 'baked'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Anmol Kagrecha , Jayakrishnan Nair , Krishna Jagannathan

In clinical trials, an experimental treatment is sometimes added on to a standard of care or control therapy in multiple treatment phases (e.g., concomitant and maintenance phases) to improve patient outcomes. When the new regimen provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-19 Sudipta Bhattacharya , Jyotirmoy Dey

While well-established methods for time-to-event data are available when the proportional hazards assumption holds, there is no consensus on the best inferential approach under non-proportional hazards (NPH). However, a wide range of…

Win statistics have become increasingly popular for analyzing hierarchical composite endpoints in clinical trials, because they summarize treatment benefit through pairwise comparisons that respect the clinical importance order among…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Xi Fang , Guangyu Tong , Yuan Huang , F. Perry Wilson , Patrick J. Heagerty , Fan Li

We treat the problem of testing independence between m continuous variables when m can be larger than the available sample size n. We consider three types of test statistics that are constructed as sums or sums of squares of pairwise rank…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-05 Dennis Leung , Mathias Drton

Non-parametric tests can determine the better of two stochastic optimization algorithms when benchmarking results are ordinal, like the final fitness values of multiple trials. For many benchmarks, however, a trial can also terminate once…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Kenneth V. Price , Abhishek Kumar , Ponnuthurai N Suganthan

Mean-based estimators of causal effects in randomized experiments may behave poorly if the potential outcomes have a heavy tail or contain outliers. An alternative estimator proposed by Rosenbaum (1993) estimates a constant additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Aditya Ghosh , Nabarun Deb , Bikram Karmakar , Bodhisattva Sen

Instrumental variable methods allow for inference about the treatment effect by controlling for unmeasured confounding in randomized experiments with noncompliance. However, many studies do not consider the observed compliance behavior in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-15 Kwonsang Lee , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Jing Qin , Dylan S. Small

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Ruizhe Chen , Sanjib Basu , Qian Shi

We propose a Bayesian Sequential procedure to test hypotheses concerning the Relative Risk between two specific treatments based on the binary data obtained from the two-arm clinical trial. Our development is based on the optimal sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jiayue Wang , Ben Boukai

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in biomedical research. For instance, when estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), a doubly robust estimation procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Chi-Shian Dai , Chao Ying , Yang Ning , Jiwei Zhao

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Pietro Carlotti , Layla Parast

Two common concerns raised in analyses of randomized experiments are (i) appropriately handling issues of non-compliance, and (ii) appropriately adjusting for multiple tests (e.g., on multiple outcomes or subgroups). Although simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-25 Joseph J. Lee , Laura Forastiere , Luke Miratrix , Natesh S. Pillai