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Biased sampling and missing data complicates statistical problems ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. We often correct for biased sampling of summary statistics with matching methods and importance weighting. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-02 James Sharpnack

We develop nested variational inference (NVI), a family of methods that learn proposals for nested importance samplers by minimizing an forward or reverse KL divergence at each level of nesting. NVI is applicable to many commonly-used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-22 Heiko Zimmermann , Hao Wu , Babak Esmaeili , Jan-Willem van de Meent

We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-09 Marko Järvenpää , Michael Gutmann , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-09-28 F. Feroz , M. P. Hobson , M. Bridges

In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (Al) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 R. Martin Chavez , Gregory F. Cooper

Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used in systems biology for inferring parameters in stochastic gene regulatory network models. Its performance hinges critically on the ability to summarize high-dimensional system responses such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-13 Mattias Åkesson , Prashant Singh , Fredrik Wrede , Andreas Hellander

In non-linear estimations, it is common to assess sampling uncertainty by bootstrap inference. For complex models, this can be computationally intensive. This paper combines optimization with resampling: turning stochastic optimization into…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-09 Jean-Jacques Forneron

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. However, in BNNs the priors are often specified over the weights which rarely reflects true prior knowledge in large and complex neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Vishnu Raj , Tianyu Cui , Markus Heinonen , Pekka Marttinen

We present a systematic study of the nested sampling algorithm based on the example of the Potts model. This model, which exhibits a first order phase transition for $q>4$, exemplifies a generic numerical challenge in statistical physics:…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-12-12 Manuel J. Pfeifenberger , Michael Rumetshofer , Wolfgang von der Linden

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

Nested sampling is often used in Bayesian statistics problems in astronomy. It operates with a set of live points, iteratively replacing the point with the lowest likelihood with a new point of higher likelihood. Each iteration reduces the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-03-24 Vaibhav Tiwari

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-05-04 Joseph M. Lukens , Kody J. H. Law , Ajay Jasra , Pavel Lougovski

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

Supervised deep-embedding methods project inputs of a domain to a representational space in which same-class instances lie near one another and different-class instances lie far apart. We propose a probabilistic method that treats…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-27 Tyler R. Scott , Karl Ridgeway , Michael C. Mozer

The use of high-power industrial equipment, such as large-scale mixing equipment or a hydrocyclone for separation of particles in liquid suspension, demands careful monitoring to ensure correct operation. The fundamental task of…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-20 Chris. J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Robert G. Aykroyd , Mark Girolami

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-26 Ydo Wexler , Dan Geiger

In multimedia forensics, learning-based methods provide state-of-the-art performance in determining origin and authenticity of images and videos. However, most existing methods are challenged by out-of-distribution data, i.e., with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-29 Anatol Maier , Benedikt Lorch , Christian Riess

In Statistics, log-concave density estimation is a central problem within the field of nonparametric inference under shape constraints. Despite great progress in recent years on the statistical theory of the canonical estimator, namely the…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-01 Wenyu Chen , Rahul Mazumder , Richard J. Samworth

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-20 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander , Ritabrata Dutta , Samuel Kaski