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Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

This paper examines the construction of confidence sets for parameters defined as linear functionals of a function of W and X whose conditional mean given Z and X equals the conditional mean of another variable Y given Z and X. Many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Ezequiel Smucler , James M. Robins , Andrea Rotnitzky

The existing work on the distributed training of machine learning (ML) models has consistently overlooked the distribution of the achieved learning quality, focusing instead on its average value. This leads to a poor dependability}of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Francesco Malandrino , Giuseppe Di Giacomo , Marco Levorato , Carla Fabiana Chiasserini

Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-16 Qizhao Chen , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Morgane Austern

Completely randomized experiment is the gold standard for causal inference. When the covariate information for each experimental candidate is available, one typical way is to include them in covariate adjustments for more accurate treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Xin Lu , Fan Yang , Yuhao Wang

We study nonparametric inference for the causal dose-response (or treatment effect) curve when the treatment variable is continuous rather than binary or discrete. We do this by developing doubly robust confidence intervals for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Charles R. Doss

We investigate the asymptotic risk of a general class of overparameterized likelihood models, including deep models. The recent empirical success of large-scale models has motivated several theoretical studies to investigate a scenario…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Ryumei Nakada , Masaaki Imaizumi

Deep Metric Learning (DML) methods aim at learning an embedding space in which distances are closely related to the inherent semantic similarity of the inputs. Previous studies have shown that popular benchmark datasets often contain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Oriol Barbany , Xiaofan Lin , Muhammet Bastan , Arnab Dhua

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

Supervised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms excel at predictive tasks, but it is commonly assumed that they often do so by exploiting non-causal correlations, which may limit both interpretability and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-21 Maximilian Pichler , Florian Hartig

We consider a linear mixed-effects model with a clustered structure, where the parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on possibly unbalanced data. Inference with this model is typically done based on asymptotic theory,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-30 Chih-Hao Chang , Hsin-Cheng Huang , Ching-Kang Ing

Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs) are useful for causal inference of treatment effects in longitudinal observational studies. Most existing works assume that the data are collected at pre-fixed time points for all subjects, which,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-13 Shu Yang

In the last decade, deep learning (DL) has outperformed model-based and statistical approaches in predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery in the context of condition-based maintenance. One of the major drawbacks of DL is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-10 Luca Della Libera

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Time series imputation is one of the most challenge problems and has broad applications in various fields like health care and the Internet of Things. Existing methods mainly aim to model the temporally latent dependencies and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Ruichu Cai , Kaitao Zheng , Junxian Huang , Zijian Li , Zhengming Chen , Boyan Xu , Zhifeng Hao

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Damian Machlanski , Spyridon Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

Existing methods for differentiable structure learning in discrete data typically assume that the data are generated from specific structural equation models. However, these assumptions may not align with the true data-generating process,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Chang Deng , Bryon Aragam

The use of standard statistical methods, such as maximum likelihood, is often justified based on their asymptotic properties. For suitably regular models, this theory is standard but, when the model is non-regular, e.g., the support depends…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-25 Ryan Martin , Yi Lin

Popular debiased estimation methods for causal inference -- such as augmented inverse propensity weighting and targeted maximum likelihood estimation -- enjoy desirable asymptotic properties like statistical efficiency and double robustness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Tiffany Tianhui Cai , Yuri Fonseca , Kaiwen Hou , Hongseok Namkoong
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