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Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-04 Song X. Chen , Liang Peng , Cindy L. Yu

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Demian Pouzo , Zacharias Psaradakis , Martin Sola

Various and ubiquitous information systems are being used in monitoring, exchanging, and collecting information. These systems are generating massive amount of event sequence logs that may help us understand underlying phenomenon. By…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-13 Yihuang Kang , Vladimir Zadorozhny

We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, the known approaches to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based in the assumption…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-03-23 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Tim Rogers , Pedro G. Lind

In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-10 Feng-Hui Yu , Wai-Ki Ching , Jia-Wen Gu , Tak-Kuen Siu

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Romain Azaïs , Solune Denis

This paper deals with convergence of the maximum a posterior probability path estimator in hidden Markov models. We show that when the state space of the hidden process is continuous, the optimal path may stabilize in a way which is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-25 Pavel Chigansky , Yaacov Ritov

An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Tobias Ryden

We present a new method for statistical verification of quantitative properties over a partially unknown system with actions, utilising a parameterised model (in this work, a parametric Markov decision process) and data collected from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-06 Elizabeth Polgreen , Viraj Wijesuriya , Sofie Haesaert , Alessandro Abate

We show that a reversible pumping mechanism operating between two states of a kinetic network can give rise to Poisson transitions between these two states. An external observer, for whom the pumping mechanism is not accessible, will…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-06 Massimiliano Esposito , Juan MR Parrondo

For continuous-time Markov jump processes on irreducible networks with time-independent rate constants, we employ a transition-based formalism to express the long-time precision of a single integrated current over an observable channel in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-25 Alberto Garilli , Diego Frezzato

Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-10 Jason Xu , Vladimir N. Minin

This report addresses state inference for hidden Markov models. These models rely on unobserved states, which often have a meaningful interpretation. This makes it necessary to develop diagnostic tools for quantification of state…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-26 Jean-Baptiste Durand , Y. Guédon

Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-05-17 Vitali Volovoi

We study the multiple definitions of the entropy production for discrete-time Markov processes in single systems and composite systems. These definitions have been studied in single systems, but less so in composite systems. With a clear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-30 Masanao Igarashi

In this article, relying on Foster-Lyapunov drift conditions, we establish subexponential upper and lower bounds on the rate of convergence in the $\mathrm{L}^p$-Wasserstein distance for a class of irreducible and aperiodic Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-28 Ari Arapostathis , Guodong Pang , Nikola Sandrić

In this paper we consider the problem of computing the stationary distribution of nearly completely decomposable Markov processes, a well-established area in the classical theory of Markov processes with broad applications in the design,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Vasileios Kalantzis , Mark S. Squillante , Chai Wah Wu

We present a unified description of symmetric two-state Markov relaxation and intrinsic entanglement dynamics based on thermo-field dynamics (TFD). A classical two-state Markov process is embedded into a dissipative two-level quantum system…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-21 Koichi Nakagawa

Lumping a Markov process introduces a coarser level of description that is useful in many contexts and applications. The dynamics on the coarse grained states is often approximated by its Markovian component. In this letter we derive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-07-31 David Andrieux

Markov process is widely applied in almost all aspects of literature, especially important for understanding non-equilibrium processes. We introduce a decomposition to general Markov process in this paper. This decomposition decomposes the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-06-12 Jianghong Shi , Tianqi Chen , Bo Yuan , Ping Ao
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