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The complex small-scale statistics of turbulence are a result of the combined cascading dynamics through all scales of the flow. Predicting these statistics using fully resolved simulations at the high Reynolds numbers that typically occur…
Accurately estimating high quantiles beyond the largest observed value is crucial for risk assessment and devising effective adaptation strategies to prevent a greater disaster. The generalized extreme value distribution is widely used for…
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…
Iterative load balancing algorithms for indivisible tokens have been studied intensively in the past. Complementing previous worst-case analyses, we study an average-case scenario where the load inputs are drawn from a fixed probability…
Generalized linear model with $L_1$ and $L_2$ regularization is a widely used technique for solving classification, class probability estimation and regression problems. With the numbers of both features and examples growing rapidly in the…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
Robust inferential methods based on divergences measures have shown an appealing trade-off between efficiency and robustness in many different statistical models. In this paper, minimum density power divergence estimators (MDPDEs) for the…
Catastrophic loss data are known to be heavy-tailed. Practitioners then need models that are able to capture both tail and modal parts of claim data. To this purpose, a new parametric family of loss distributions is proposed as a gamma…
In this paper we introduce a new flexible class of distributions with bounded support, called reflected Generalized Topp-Leone Power Series (rGTL-PS), obtained by compounding the reflected Generalized Topp-Leone (van Drop and Kotz, 2006)…
The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using…
The probabilistic diffusion model (DM), generating content by inferencing through a recursive chain structure, has emerged as a powerful framework for visual generation. After pre-training on enormous data, the model needs to be properly…
We present a technique for constructing suitable posterior probability distributions in situations for which the sampling distribution of the data is not known. This is very useful for modern scientific data analysis in the era of "big…
In this paper we introduce a novel Bayesian data augmentation approach for estimating the parameters of the generalised logistic regression model. We propose a P\'olya-Gamma sampler algorithm that allows us to sample from the exact…
We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach combines ideas from large deviation theory and adaptive importance…
The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…
Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial for maintaining reliable performance in high-stakes applications. While traditional RL methods aim to learn a point estimate of the random cumulative cost, distributional RL (DRL) seeks…
It is shown that distributions arising in Renyi-Tsallis maximum entropy setting are related to the Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD) that are widely used for modeling the tails of distributions. The relevance of such modelization, as…
\textit{Mallows model} is a widely-used probabilistic framework for learning from ranking data, with applications ranging from recommendation systems and voting to aligning language models with human preferences~\cite{chen2024mallows,…
In most risk assessment studies, it is important to accurately capture the entire distribution of the multivariate random vector of interest from low to high values. For example, in climate sciences, low precipitation events may lead to…