Related papers: Systemic values-at-risk and their sample-average a…
In this paper, we study a class of stochastic optimization problems, referred to as the \emph{Conditional Stochastic Optimization} (CSO), in the form of $\min_{x \in \mathcal{X}} \EE_{\xi}f_\xi\Big({\EE_{\eta|\xi}[g_\eta(x,\xi)]}\Big)$,…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
Risk measures for random vectors have been considered in multi-asset markets with transaction costs and financial networks in the literature. While the theory of set-valued risk measures provide an axiomatic framework for assigning to a…
Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…
Mean-deviation models, along with the existing theory of coherent risk measures, are well studied in the literature. In this paper, we characterize monotonic mean-deviation (risk) measures from a general mean-deviation model by applying a…
The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and…
Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) measure is a convenient coherent risk measure. Due to certain difficulties in finding its analytical representation, it was previously calculated explicitly only for the normal distribution. We succeeded to…
A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…
We propose a summary measure defined as the expected value of a random variable over disjoint subsets of its support that are specified by a given grid of proportions, and consider its use in a regression modeling framework. The obtained…
We consider applying stochastic approximation (SA) methods to solve nonsmooth variational inclusion problems. Existing studies have shown that the averaged iterates of SA methods exhibit asymptotic normality, with an optimal limiting…
We analyze the tail behavior of solutions to sample average approximations (SAAs) of stochastic programs posed in Hilbert spaces. We require that the integrand be strongly convex with the same convexity parameter for each realization.…
Estimating rare events in complex systems is a key challenge in reliability analysis. The challenge grows in multimodal problems, where traditional methods often rely on a small set of design points and risk overlooking critical failure…
In reliability theory and survival analysis, observed data are often weakly dependent and subject to additive measurement errors. Such contamination arises when the underlying data are neither independent nor strongly mixed but instead…
We consider a single stage stochastic program without recourse with a strictly convex loss function. We assume a compact decision space and grid it with a finite set of points. In addition, we assume that the decision maker can generate…
The average properties of the well-known Subset Sum Problem can be studied by the means of its randomised version, where we are given a target value $z$, random variables $X_1, \ldots, X_n$, and an error parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, and we…
Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) as a possible risk measure requires adequate techniques. One of these techniques is the application of a compound distribution for the aggregates in a portfolio. In this…
In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian methodology for Value-at-Risk computation based on parametric Product Partition Models. Value-at-Risk is a standard tool to measure and control the market risk of an asset or a portfolio, and it is…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a…
The value-at-risk of a delta-gamma approximated derivatives portfolio can be computed by numerical integration of the characteristic function. However, while the choice of parameters in any numerical integration scheme is paramount, in…