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Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jinlun Zhang , Haoneng Huang , Zishu Zhan , Chunquan Ou

This manuscript investigates unconditional and conditional-on-stopping maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), information measures and information loss associated with conditioning in group sequential designs (GSDs). The possibility of early…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-06 Sergey Tarima , Nancy Flournoy

Deep generative models (DGMs) compress high-dimensional data but often entangle distinct physical factors in their latent spaces. We present an auxiliary-variable-guided framework for disentangling representations of thermal…

Detection limit (DL) has become an increasingly ubiquitous issue in statistical analyses of biomedical studies, such as cytokine, metabolite and protein analysis. In regression analysis, if an explanatory variable is left-censored due to…

The double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework has become a cornerstone of modern causal inference, allowing researchers to utilise flexible machine learning models for the estimation of nuisance functions without introducing…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-19 Charles Shaw

Given inputs of diverse soil characteristics and climate data gathered from various regions, we aimed to build a model to predict accurate land emissions. The problem is important since accurate quantification of the carbon cycle in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-24 Arun Sharma , Majid Farhadloo , Mingzhou Yang , Ruolei Zeng , Subhankar Ghosh , Shashi Shekhar

This study presents a comparative analysis of three predictive models with an increasing degree of flexibility: hidden dynamic geostatistical models (HDGM), generalised additive mixed models (GAMM), and the random forest spatiotemporal…

Understanding the association between mixtures of environmental toxicants and time-to-pregnancy (TTP) is an important scientific question as sufficient evidence has emerged about the impact of individual toxicants on reproductive health and…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-13 Abhisek Saha , Rajeshwari Sundaram

Statistical models are an essential tool to model, forecast and understand the hydrological processes in watersheds. In particular, the understanding of time lags associated with the delay between rainfall occurrence and subsequent changes…

Interval estimation of quantiles has been treated by many in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge there has been no consideration for interval estimation when the data are available in grouped format. Motivated by this, we…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-08 Dilanka S. Dedduwakumara , Luke A. Prendergast

Deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in precipitation prediction. However, they still face significant challenges in accurately capturing spatial details of radar images, particularly in regions of high precipitation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Li Chaorong , Ling Xudong , Yang Qiang , Qin Fengqing , Huang Yuanyuan

This paper considers a class of GMM estimators for general dynamic panel models, allowing for weakly exogenous covariates and cross sectional dependence due to spatial lags, unspecified common shocks and time-varying interactive effects. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-28 Guido M. Kuersteiner , Ingmar R. Prucha

Advanced epidemic forecasting is critical for enabling precision containment strategies, highlighting its strategic importance for public health security. While recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated effectiveness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Chenghua Gong , Rui Sun , Yuhao Zheng , Juyuan Zhang , Tianjun Gu , Liming Pan , Linyuan Lv

Language models (LMs) are machine learning models designed to predict linguistic patterns by estimating the probability of word sequences based on large-scale datasets, such as text. LMs have a wide range of applications in natural language…

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-19 Yu Gu , Donglin Zeng , Gerardo Heiss , D. Y. Lin

As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Zhun Deng , Thomas P Zollo , Benjamin Eyre , Amogh Inamdar , David Madras , Richard Zemel

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-17 Andrew Wey , David Vock , John Connett , Kyle Rudser

When exposure measurement error (EME), confounder measurement error (CME), or both are present, health effect estimates regarding exposure mixtures and critical exposure time-window may not represent the true effects. For example, in air…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Honghyok Kim

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey