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Heterogeneous treatment effects can be very important in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Heightened risks or enhanced benefits may exist for particular subsets of study subjects. When the heterogeneous treatment effects are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk , Matthew Olson , Andreas Buja , Aurelie Ouss

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

We consider a general difference-in-differences model in which the treatment variable of interest may be non-binary and its value may change in each period. It is generally difficult to estimate treatment parameters defined with the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-30 Takahide Yanagi

Identifying subgroups, which respond differently to a treatment, both in terms of efficacy and safety, is an important part of drug development. A well-known challenge in exploratory subgroup analyses is the small sample size in the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-28 Marius Thomas , Björn Bornkamp

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

In this paper, we establish sufficient conditions for identifying treatment effects on continuous outcomes in endogenous and multi-valued discrete treatment settings with unobserved heterogeneity. We employ the monotonicity assumption for…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-27 Koki Fusejima

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Estimating population-level effects of a vaccine is challenging because there may be interference, i.e., the outcome of one individual may depend on the vaccination status of another individual. Partial interference occurs when individuals…

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by empirical estimates of vaccine efficacy…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-19 Casey E. Middleton , Oliver Eales , James M. McCaw , Freya M. Shearer

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

Computational methods for assessing the likely impacts of mutations, known as variant effect predictors (VEPs), are widely used in the assessment and interpretation of human genetic variation, as well as in other applications like protein…

Process variant analysis aims at identifying and addressing the differences existing in a set of process executions enacted by the same process model. A process model can be executed differently in different situations for various reasons,…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Farbod Taymouri , Marcello La Rosa , Marlon Dumas , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

In a completely randomized experiment, the variances of treatment effect estimators in the finite population are usually not identifiable and hence not estimable. Although some estimable bounds of the variances have been established in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Ruoyu Wang , Qihua Wang , Wang Miao , Xiaohua Zhou

Understanding waning of vaccine-induced protection is important for both immunology and public health. Population heterogeneities in underlying (pre-vaccination) susceptibility and vaccine response can cause measured vaccine effectiveness…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-02 Ariel Nikas , Hasan Ahmed , Veronika I. Zarnitsyna