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In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-25 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nick Whiteley , Emma McCoy

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-21 Colin Fox , Tiangang Cui , Markus Neumayer

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Han Lu , Mohammad Khalil , Thomas Catanach , Jiefu Chen , Xuqing Wu , Xin Fu , Cosmin Safta , Yueqin Huang

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

This paper advocates proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ProxMCMC) as a flexible and general Bayesian inference framework for constrained or regularized estimation. Originally introduced in the Bayesian imaging literature, ProxMCMC employs…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Xinkai Zhou , Qiang Heng , Eric C. Chi , Hua Zhou

Identifying important features linked to a response variable is a fundamental task in various scientific domains. This article explores statistical inference for simulated Markov random fields in high-dimensional settings. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-23 Haoyu Wei , Xiaoyu Lei , Yixin Han , Huiming Zhang

A well known identifiability issue in factor analytic models is the invariance with respect to orthogonal transformations. This problem burdens the inference under a Bayesian setup, where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

We study the Bayesian inverse problem for inferring the log-normal slowness function of the eikonal equation given noisy observation data on its solution at a set of spatial points. We study approximation of the posterior probability…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Zhan Fei Yeo , Viet Ha Hoang

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

Deterministic computational modeling of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process fails to capture irregularities and roughness of the scan track, unless expensive powder-scale analysis is used. In this work we developed a stochastic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-08-08 Yangfan Li , Ye Lu , Abdullah Al Amin , Wing Kam Liu

We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-05-29 Olga A. Doronina , Colin A. Z. Towery , Peter E. Hamlington

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Guanyu Hu , HaiYing Wang

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

Stochastic approximation methods play a central role in maximum likelihood estimation problems involving intractable likelihood functions, such as marginal likelihoods arising in problems with missing or incomplete data, and in parametric…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Marcelo Pereyra , Ana F. Vidal

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick
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