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We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…
Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a…
SEMMS (Scalable Empirical-Bayes Model for Marker Selection) is a variable-selection procedure for generalized linear models that uses a three-component normal mixture prior on regression coefficients. In its original form, SEMMS assumes…
Interactions among multiple time series of positive random variables are crucial in diverse financial applications, from spillover effects to volatility interdependence. A popular model in this setting is the vector Multiplicative Error…
Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…
In practical regression applications, multiple covariates are often measured, but not all may be associated with the response variable. Identifying and including only the relevant covariates in the model is crucial for improving prediction…
Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…
We consider Bayesian linear regression with sparsity-inducing prior and design efficient sampling algorithms leveraging posterior contraction properties. A quasi-likelihood with Gaussian spike-and-slab (that is favorable both statistically…
Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…
The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…
Stochastic variational Bayes algorithms have become very popular in the machine learning literature, particularly in the context of nonparametric Bayesian inference. These algorithms replace the true but intractable posterior distribution…
Networks are a commonly used mathematical model to describe the rich set of interactions between objects of interest. Many clustering methods have been developed in order to partition such structures, among which several rely on underlying…
Beta regression models are a suitable choice for continuous response variables on the unity interval. Random effects add further flexibility to the models and accommodate data structures such as hierarchical, repeated measures and…
Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…
High-dimensional linear models have been widely studied, but the developments in high-dimensional generalized linear models, or GLMs, have been slower. In this paper, we propose an empirical or data-driven prior leading to an empirical…
There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…
The Bradley-Terry model is a popular approach to describe probabilities of the possible outcomes when elements of a set are repeatedly compared with one another in pairs. It has found many applications including animal behaviour, chess…
Finite mixture models have been widely used for the modelling and analysis of data from heterogeneous populations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is typically carried out via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The…
Evidence Accumulation Models (EAMs) have been widely used to investigate speeded decision-making processes, but they have largely neglected the role of predictive processes emphasized by theories of the predictive brain. In this paper, we…
A framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic programs is introduced by embedding a sampler inside a variational posterior approximation. We call it the refined variational approximation. Its strength lies both…