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Variational inference (VI) has become a widely used approach for scalable Bayesian inference, but its performance strongly depends on the flexibility of the chosen variational family. In this work, we propose a novel variational family that…

Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…

Copulas, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear mixed models promote the analysis of grouped data where non-normal responses are correlated. Unfortunately, parameter estimation remains challenging in these three…

A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an…

We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…

Generative models are increasingly deployed as substitutes for real data in downstream scientific workflows, yet standard evaluation criteria remain focused on marginal distribution matching. We argue that this represents a fundamental gap:…

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

Modelling multivariate circular time series is considered. The cross-sectional and serial dependence is described by circulas, which are analogs of copulas for circular distributions. In order to obtain a simple expression of the dependence…

The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…

We derive the (d-dimensional) periodic incompressible and viscous Camassa-Holm equation as well as the Leray-alpha equations via a stochastic variational principle. We discuss the existence of solution for this equation in the space H1…

Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the…

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

GARCH is one of the most prominent nonlinear time series models, both widely applied and thoroughly studied. Recently, it has been shown that the COGARCH model (which was introduced a few years ago by Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller)…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has…

We address an important yet challenging problem - modeling high-dimensional dependencies across multivariates such as financial indicators in heterogeneous markets. In reality, a market couples and influences others over time, and the…

This report provides an in-depth overview over the implications and novelty Generalized Variational Inference (GVI) (Knoblauch et al., 2019) brings to Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) (Damianou & Lawrence, 2013). Specifically, robustness to…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…