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Uncertainty estimation is crucial for the reliability of safety-critical human and artificial intelligence (AI) interaction systems, particularly in the domain of healthcare engineering. However, a robust and general uncertainty measure for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Chenxi Yuan , Qingyu Chen , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Ren Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment. Current approaches, which either provide a single uncertainty score or rely on the classical aleatoric-epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aditya Taparia , Ransalu Senanayake , Kowshik Thopalli , Vivek Narayanaswamy

Despite the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various domains, they frequently exhibit overconfidence when encountering uncertain scenarios, yet existing solutions primarily rely on evasive responses (e.g., "I…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jingyu Liu , Jingquan Peng , xiaopeng Wu , Xubin Li , Tiezheng Ge , Bo Zheng , Yong Liu

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Dang Nguyen , Ali Payani , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promising performance across various tasks. However, their autoregressive decoding process poses significant challenges for efficient deployment on existing AI hardware. Quantization alleviates memory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Guanxi Lu , Hao Mark Chen , Zhiqiang Que , Wayne Luk , Hongxiang Fan

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as knowledge bases (KBs), yet current evaluation methods focus too narrowly on knowledge retention, overlooking other crucial criteria for reliable performance. In this work, we rethink…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Danna Zheng , Mirella Lapata , Jeff Z. Pan

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Xu Wu , Lesego E. Moloko , Pavel M. Bokov , Gregory K. Delipei , Joshua Kaizer , Kostadin N. Ivanov

Accurately estimating semantic aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in large language models (LLMs) is particularly challenging in free-form question answering (QA), where obtaining stable estimates often requires many expensive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Ji Won Park , Kyunghyun Cho

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Manuel Haußmann , Ramon Winterhalder , Maria Ubiali

Large Language Models (LLMs) are revolutionizing information retrieval, with chatbots becoming an important source for answering user queries. As by their design, LLMs prioritize generating correct answers, the value of highly plausible yet…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Jamshid Mozafari , Abdelrahman Abdallah , Bhawna Piryani , Adam Jatowt

Large language models (LLMs) are stochastic, and not all models give deterministic answers, even when setting temperature to zero with a fixed random seed. However, few benchmark studies attempt to quantify uncertainty, partly due to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Robert E. Blackwell , Jon Barry , Anthony G. Cohn

In this paper, we present a dynamic semantic clustering approach inspired by the Chinese Restaurant Process, aimed at addressing uncertainty in the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs). We quantify uncertainty of an LLM on a given…

Quantization enables efficient deployment of large language models (LLMs) in resource-constrained environments by significantly reducing memory and computation costs. While quantized LLMs often maintain performance on perplexity and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Yao Fu , Xianxuan Long , Runchao Li , Haotian Yu , Mu Sheng , Xiaotian Han , Yu Yin , Pan Li

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Mauricio Rivera , Jean-François Godbout , Reihaneh Rabbany , Kellin Pelrine

Reliable uncertainty quantification is a first step towards building explainable, transparent, and accountable artificial intelligent systems. Recent progress in Bayesian deep learning has made such quantification realizable. In this paper,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Yijun Xiao , William Yang Wang

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Rui Li , Jing Long , Muge Qi , Heming Xia , Lei Sha , Peiyi Wang , Zhifang Sui